Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating to the banking sector [6] Core Insights - The growth rate of social financing is stabilizing, with a year-on-year increase of 8.5% in November 2025, remaining unchanged from the previous month. Excluding government bonds, the growth rate is 6.0%, which is an increase of 0.1 percentage points from the previous month [6] - New social financing in November amounted to 2.49 trillion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 159.7 billion yuan, primarily supported by corporate bond issuance, while credit and government bonds showed negative growth [6] - The report highlights a trend of short-term borrowing among enterprises, with corporate loans increasing by 610 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 360 billion yuan [6][4] Summary by Sections 1. Social Financing Data - In November, the total social financing growth rate was 8.5%, with a new social financing addition of 2.49 trillion yuan, up 159.7 billion yuan year-on-year. The growth rate excluding government bonds was 6.0% [6][2] - Corporate bond financing net increased by 416.9 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 178.8 billion yuan, primarily driven by state-owned enterprises [6][4] 2. Credit and Loan Trends - The report indicates a weak increase in credit, with November's RMB loan growth rate at 6.4%, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month. New loans for the month totaled 390 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 190 billion yuan [6] - Personal loans decreased by 206.3 billion yuan, with short-term loans down by 215.8 billion yuan year-on-year, indicating pressure on both short-term and medium-to-long-term loans [4][6] 3. Deposit Trends - RMB deposit growth rate in November was 7.7%, down 0.3 percentage points from the previous month, with new deposits amounting to 1.41 trillion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 760 billion yuan [6] - The report notes a slowdown in deposit migration, with corporate deposits increasing by 645.3 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 94.7 billion yuan [6][4] 4. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests focusing on three investment themes: identifying banks with potential for performance growth, emphasizing banks with convertible bond expectations, and continuing dividend strategies [6]

"农商行立足县域和乡村，定位支农支小，重点发力普惠金融。"常熟农商银行人力资源部、培训中 心总经理陈若骁介绍，该行针对小微企业多元需求，通过链接政府、产业、客户资源，帮助企业解决超 越融资的实际问题。这种赋能提升了客户的整体竞争力，也反哺提升了银行的资产质量。目前，常熟农 商银行贷款业务中，1000万元以下贷款占比72%，户数占比达到99.6%，客户数量达到57万户、平均每 户贷款金额为44万元，普惠金融特色鲜明。 12月11日，记者从苏州金融会客厅共建发展大会上获悉，苏州地区法人农商银行总资产规模突破万 亿元。万亿资产规模意味着苏州地区法人农商银行有更强的资金实力支农支小，服务区域经济高质量发 展。 苏州地区的法人农商银行共5家，分别是苏州农商银行、张家港农商银行、常熟农商银行、太仓农 商银行、昆山农商银行。其中，常熟农商银行资产规模最高，超过4000亿元。 ...

12月11日，在常熟沙家浜这片浸润着红色记忆的土地上，一座面向未来的金融新地标——苏州金融会客 厅正式启用。 今年，既是常熟农商银行改制成立24周年，也是苏州地区5家法人农商行总资产突破万亿的重要节点。 就在这样的时间坐标上，苏州金融会客厅启幕，以"会客厅"的形式集成金融党建、科技金融、人才培养 和产融协同等功能，由常熟市政府与常熟农商银行共同打造，承载着金融服务体系的重构愿景。当金融 的"活水"开始更加精准地流向产业"高地"，苏州这座制造业强市的增长逻辑，正以要素驱动和金融赋能 双重支撑。 苏州金融会客厅共建发展大会 历史性交汇：万亿资产与24年坚守汇聚一日 24年前，常熟农村信用社联合社作为全国首批三家农村金融机构之一完成股份制改革，常熟农商银行由 此诞生，拉开了苏州农村金融改革序幕。此后，在江苏农商联合银行的统一领导下，常熟、苏州、昆 山、张家港、太仓五家法人农商银行相继成长，在田间地头和产业车间里探索普惠金融的"苏州路径"。 24年后，时间给出了回响：苏州地区5家法人农商银行总资产规模首次突破1万亿元，成为全市资产规模 最大的银行共同体。其中，常熟农商银行资产规模最高，截至2025年9月末，总资产40 ...

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "Overweight" rating for the banking sector [7]. Core Insights - The report emphasizes the significant improvement in the cost of liabilities for banks in 2025, with a notable decrease of 28 basis points (bp) in the first half of the year, compared to only 4 bp in the same period last year. This improvement is primarily driven by reductions in deposit and interbank liabilities costs, contributing 19 bp and 7 bp respectively [3][11]. - The net interest margin (NIM) is expected to decline by approximately 5 bp in 2026, with the downward pressure on margins continuing to ease marginally, suggesting that some banks may stabilize their NIMs [2][10]. Summary by Sections 1. Liability Cost Improvement in 2025 - The first half of 2025 saw a significant reduction in the cost of interest-bearing liabilities, with the cost rate dropping to 1.70%, a decrease of 28 bp from 2024. This was supported by improvements in both deposit and interbank liability costs [11]. 2. Liability Side: Deposit Maturity and Repricing Benefits 1) **Term Structure**: The proportion of long-term deposits entering the repricing cycle has increased, with the share of deposits with a remaining maturity of 1-5 years declining by 1.5 percentage points (pct) to 22.6% by the end of Q2 2025. Some banks, such as those in Ningbo and Chongqing, experienced declines exceeding 10 pct [4]. 2) **Price Factors**: Regulatory focus on maintaining reasonable NIM levels has increased, with expectations of further interest rate cuts. The maximum reduction for three-year deposits could exceed 100 bp, indicating substantial room for cost improvement [5]. 3. Asset Side: Yield Pressure Expected to be Better than 2025 1) **Loans**: The repricing pressure on loans is expected to ease, with the five-year Loan Prime Rate (LPR) declining by only 10 bp in 2025, significantly less than the 50 bp drop the previous year [6]. 2) **Debt Replacement**: The shift from high-interest to low-interest debt is anticipated to have a limited impact on net interest margins, estimated to drag down margins by about 4 bp [6]. 3) **Bond Maturity**: The widening gap between new bond issuance rates and existing bond yields is expected to exert downward pressure on investment yields, with an estimated drag of 6 bp on margins from the reallocation of bonds maturing within one year [6]. 4. NIM Projections - The report forecasts a 5 bp decline in NIM for 2026, with the downward trend continuing to converge. The asset yield is expected to decrease by 17 bp, while the cost of liabilities is projected to improve by 13 bp, with deposit costs improving by 17 bp [7][10].

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for the banking sector, indicating an expectation that stock prices will outperform the market by more than 10% over the next 12 months [40]. Core Insights - The growth of M2 is primarily driven by government and corporate leverage, with government leverage's contribution increasing from 23.9% in 2015 to 45.5% in 2025, while corporate leverage is expected to contribute 63.6% to M2 growth in 2025 [5][14]. - The report highlights a divergence between the social financing (社融) and M2 growth rates, indicating a liquidity accumulation in the financial system when the demand for financing from the real economy is insufficient, which can lead to a decline in bond yields [5][19]. - The expected social financing-M2 differential for 2026 is projected to be 0.56%, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of 33 basis points [32]. Summary by Sections M2 and Liquidity Analysis - M2 includes cash, personal deposits, corporate deposits, non-bank deposits, and deposits from non-deposit financial institutions. The main contributors to M2 growth are government and corporate leverage [5][13]. - The report discusses the relationship between the social financing-M2 differential and bond market performance, noting a shift in correlation since the second half of 2022 [5][19]. Social Financing Projections - For 2026, the report forecasts a total of 16.3 trillion yuan in new loans under the social financing framework, with a growth rate of 8.11% [32][34]. - The report anticipates that the net issuance of government bonds will reach 14.8 trillion yuan in 2026, with a focus on maintaining a proactive fiscal policy [34]. M2 Growth Forecast - The M2 growth rate for 2026 is projected at 7.55%, influenced by factors such as net fiscal deposits, the strengthening of the equity market, and cross-border capital flows [32][36].

格隆汇12月10日｜A股市场银行股普跌，截至半日收盘，招商银行跌3%，农业银行、齐鲁银行、杭州 银行跌超2%，张家港行、兴业银行、常熟银行、交通银行跌近2%。 ...

12月9日，常熟银行发布公告披露，经中国人民银行批准，该行近期已于全国银行间债券市场顺利完成2025年 科技创新债券（下称"本期债券"）的发行工作。 公告显示，本期债券于2025年12月4日完成簿记建档，并于12月8日正式发行完毕。债券发行规模达5亿元人民 币，期限为5年，采用固定利率计息方式，票面利率确定为1.90%。根据发行安排，本期债券所募集的资金将在 符合法律法规及监管要求的前提下，专项用于支持科技创新领域相关业务。 常熟银行方面表示，本次科技创新债券的成功发行，不仅有效拓宽了银行服务科创企业的融资路径，更将助力 降低科创企业的融资成本。此举将进一步强化该行在科技创新业务领域的布局能力，为科创企业发展提供更有 力的金融支撑。 ...

据悉，本期债券的募集资金将依据适用法律和监管机构的批准，专项支持科技创新领域业务。 北京商报讯（记者 宋亦桐）12月9日，常熟农商行发布公告指出，经中国人民银行批准，该行近日在全 国银行间债券市场成功发行2025年科技创新债券（以下简称"本期债券"）。本期债券于2025年12月4日 簿记建档，并于2025年12月8日发行完毕，发行规模为人民币5亿元，品种为5年期固定利率债券，票面 利率为1.90%。 常熟农商行指出，本次科技创新债券的成功发行，有效拓宽了该行支持科创企业发展的融资渠道，有助 于降低科创企业融资成本，进一步助力该行加大科技创新业务发展。 ...

12月9日金融一线消息，常熟银行今日发布公告称，经中国人民银行批准，该行近日在全国银行间债券 市场成功发行 2025 年科技创新债券（以下简称"本期债券"）。 本期债券于 2025 年 12 月 4 日簿记建档，并于 2025 年 12 月 8 日发行完毕，发行规模为人民币 5 亿元， 品种为 5 年期固定利率债券，票面利率为 1.90%。本期债券的募集资金将依据适用法律和监管机构的批 准，专项支持科技创新领域业务。 12月9日金融一线消息，常熟银行今日发布公告称，经中国人民银行批准，该行近日在全国银行间债券 市场成功发行 2025 年科技创新债券（以下简称"本期债券"）。 本期债券于 2025 年 12 月 4 日簿记建档，并于 2025 年 12 月 8 日发行完毕，发行规模为人民币 5 亿元， 品种为 5 年期固定利率债券，票面利率为 1.90%。本期债券的募集资金将依据适用法律和监管机构的批 准，专项支持科技创新领域业务。 常熟银行表示，本次科技创新债券的成功发行，有效拓宽了本行支持科创企业发展的融资渠道，有助于 降低科创企业融资成本，进一步助力本行加大科技创新业务发展。 责任编辑：曹睿潼 常熟银行表 ...

经中国人民银行批准，本行近日在全国银行间债券市场成功发行 2025 年科 技创新债券（以下简称"本期债券"）。本期债券于 2025 年 12 月 4 日簿记建档， 并于 2025 年 12 月 8 日发行完毕，发行规模为人民币 5 亿元，品种为 5 年期固定 利率债券，票面利率为 1.90%。本期债券的募集资金将依据适用法律和监管机构 的批准，专项支持科技创新领域业务。 本次科技创新债券的成功发行，有效拓宽了本行支持科创企业发展的融资渠 道，有助于降低科创企业融资成本，进一步助力本行加大科技创新业务发展。 特此公告。 江苏常熟农村商业银行股份有限公司董事会 2025 年 12 月 9 日 证券代码：601128 证券简称：常熟银行 公告编号：2025-059 江苏常熟农村商业银行股份有限公司 关于 2025 年科技创新债券发行完毕的公告 江苏常熟农村商业银行股份有限公司（以下简称"本行"）董事会及全体董 事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 ...