[Table_Page] 跟踪分析|银行 证券研究报告 [Table_Title] 银行行业 通胀预期下广谱资产流动性收敛，关注负反馈 ——银行资负跟踪 20260322 [Table_Summary] 核心观点： | [Table_Gr ade] 行业评级 | 买入 | | --- | --- | | 前次评级 | 买入 | | 报告日期 | 2026-03-22 | [Table_PicQuote] 相对市场表现 [分析师： Table_Author]倪军 SAC 执证号：S0260518020004 021-38003646 nijun@gf.com.cn 分析师： 林虎 SAC 执证号：S0260525040004 SFC CE No. BWK411 021-38003643 gflinhu@gf.com.cn 请注意，倪军并非香港证券及期货事务监察委员会的注册 持牌人，不可在香港从事受监管活动。 -10% -3% 4% 10% 17% 24% 03/25 06/25 08/25 10/25 01/26 03/26 银行 沪深300 [Table_ 相关研究： DocReport] | 银行行业:山东 ...

银行周报（2026/3/16-2026/3/20） 风格均衡叠加业绩期，银行股迎投资机会 [Table_Industry] 商业银行 | [姓名table_Authors] | 电话 | 邮箱 | 登记编号 | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | 马婷婷(分析师) | 021-23185608 | matingting@gtht.com | S0880525100001 | | 李润凌(分析师) | 021-23183283 | lirunling@gtht.com | S0880525120003 | 股票研究 /[Table_Date] 2026.03.22 本报告导读： 截至 03/21 共有 14 家银行披露 2025 年业绩快报/年报，业绩稳健增长，资产质量保 持平稳。业绩期将至，二季度银行板块投资面临的交易环境和业绩表现均较为友好， 重视绩优股机会。 投资要点： [Table_Report] 相关报告 商业银行《业绩期，重视绩优股》2026.03.21 商业银行《定存向大型银行迁移，中小银行配债 力度下降》2026.03.18 商业银行《银行加速股票型指数基金布局，招行 主动基 ...

近日，本行收到《苏州金融监管分局关于倪建峰常熟农村商业银行副行长任 职资格的批复》（苏州金复〔2026〕33号），核准倪建峰先生本行副行长任职资 格。 倪建峰先生的简历详见本行2025年11月14日刊载于上海证券交易所网站 （www.sse.com.cn）的《常熟银行第八届董事会第十六次会议决议公告》 （2025-053）。 江苏常熟农村商业银行股份有限公司 关于倪建峰先生副行长任职资格获核准的公告 江苏常熟农村商业银行股份有限公司（以下简称"本行"）董事会及全体董 事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 证券代码：601128 证券简称：常熟银行 公告编号：2026-004 特此公告。 江苏常熟农村商业银行股份有限公司董事会 2026年3月20日 ...

Group 1 - The banking operating environment is characterized by a shift to a "quality over quantity" approach in credit growth, with a slowdown in RMB loan growth to 6% as of February 2026, influenced by weak credit demand and a focus on state-supported industries [4][14] - Fiscal policy remains proactive, with a projected general deficit rate of approximately 8.0% in 2026, which is expected to maintain a strong leverage effect on credit demand similar to 2025 [31][32] - The profitability of banks is gradually stabilizing, with state-owned banks showing positive profit growth due to fiscal policies, while smaller banks face operational pressures [7][35] Group 2 - Retail credit risk remains under pressure, with an increase in non-performing loans, particularly among smaller banks, although there is optimism for state-owned banks' asset quality [7][26] - The investment strategy emphasizes two main lines: focusing on wealth management capabilities in joint-stock banks and identifying city and rural commercial banks with controllable risks and strong profit certainty [6][35] - The credit growth momentum is shifting from traditional industries to emerging sectors supported by government policies, with significant growth in loans to green and high-tech enterprises [19][20]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [2] Core Insights - The report provides a comprehensive analysis of 219 regional banks in Shandong Province, highlighting their asset structure, profitability, and asset quality compared to listed banks [6][21] - The asset growth rate of major city commercial banks in Shandong is 13.5%, which is lower than the 14.2% growth rate of listed city commercial banks [26] - The report indicates that the loan-to-asset ratio for city commercial banks is 54.9%, while for rural commercial banks it is 51.6%, both showing a slight year-on-year decline [31] - The profitability metrics reveal that the return on assets (ROA) for city commercial banks in Shandong is 50 basis points lower than that of listed city commercial banks, and the return on equity (ROE) is 3.09 percentage points lower [6][31] - The asset quality of regional banks in Shandong is weaker than that of listed banks, with non-performing loan ratios higher by 21 basis points for city commercial banks and 72 basis points for rural commercial banks [6][31] Summary by Sections 1. Economic Structure of Shandong Province - Shandong Province is implementing initiatives to enhance its economic development, focusing on green and high-quality growth [13] 2. Overview of Regional Banks in Shandong - Shandong has 219 commercial banks, including 14 city commercial banks, 91 village banks, and 110 rural commercial banks [21] - The report notes that the majority of these banks were established between 2011 and 2015, with 125 banks founded during this period [21] 3. Asset and Liability Structure - The asset growth of major banks has remained stable since 2017, with city commercial banks showing a growth rate of 13.5% in the first half of 2025 [26] - The report highlights that the loan structure is predominantly corporate loans, with city and rural commercial banks having corporate loan ratios of 72.7% and 64.2%, respectively [32] 4. Profitability and Asset Quality - The report indicates that the profitability of Shandong's regional banks is lower than that of listed banks, with city commercial banks' ROA at 0.66% and ROE at 9.43% [6][31] - The non-performing loan ratio for city commercial banks is reported at 1.21%, which is higher than the average for listed banks [31] 5. Capital Adequacy - The capital adequacy ratios for city and rural commercial banks in Shandong are reported to be 13.4% and 13.8%, respectively, indicating a sufficient safety margin [6][31]

证券代码：601128 证券简称：常熟银行 公告编号：2026-003 江苏常熟农村商业银行股份有限公司（以下简称"本行"）董事会及全体董 事保证本公告内容不存在任何虚假记载、误导性陈述或者重大遗漏，并对其内容 的真实性、准确性和完整性承担个别及连带责任。 近日，本行收到《苏州金融监管分局关于陆鼎昌常熟农村商业银行董事任职 资格的批复》（苏州金复〔2026〕26号），核准陆鼎昌先生本行董事任职资格。 陆鼎昌先生的简历详见本行2025年11月14日刊载于上海证券交易所网站 （www.sse.com.cn）的《常熟银行2025年第四次临时股东会会议资料》。 特此公告。 江苏常熟农村商业银行股份有限公司董事会 2026年3月17日 江苏常熟农村商业银行股份有限公司 关于陆鼎昌先生董事任职资格获核准的公告 ...

Core Insights - The report emphasizes the financial impact of rising inflation, particularly due to the recent increase in oil prices, which is expected to have a more significant effect on the price system compared to previous instances, such as during the 2022 Russia-Ukraine conflict [21][22] - The current economic cycle is positioned differently than in 2022, with signs indicating a potential recovery in corporate inventory and an increase in long-term loans, suggesting a shift towards a demand cycle [21][22] - The report predicts that long-term bond rates will likely break through their upper resistance levels as nominal economic recovery continues, with structural monetary policy adjustments being a key focus for the central bank [3][23] Financial Implications - The report outlines three main financial implications: 1. Long-term bond rates are expected to rise, with the ten-year government bond yield likely to break its current range [3][23] 2. A decrease in market risk appetite may lead to a shift from liquidity-driven asset valuation to profit-driven valuation, potentially resulting in a challenging period for financial assets [3][23] 3. The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East may drive capital flows towards safer assets, including RMB-denominated assets, depending on the pace of financial infrastructure opening [3][23] Banking Sector Adjustments - The banking sector is advised to adjust its mindset regarding the interest rate down cycle, preparing for a scenario where interest rates and funding costs may no longer decline [4][24] - Large banks should focus on reducing the duration of loans and increasing the acquisition of settlement deposits, while smaller banks need to extend the duration of liabilities to mitigate potential impacts from cyclical shifts [4][24] Market Performance - During the observation period from March 9 to March 13, 2026, the banking sector overall increased by 1.5%, outperforming the broader market [19][56] - The report notes that the A-share banking sector showed a positive performance, while H-share banks lagged behind, indicating a divergence in market performance [19][56] Profit Forecasts - The report indicates that profit growth expectations for banks in 2025 remain largely unchanged, with minor adjustments noted for specific banks [20][56]

Investment Rating - The industry investment rating is "Buy" [3] Core Views - The expectation for interest rate cuts and reserve requirement ratio reductions has weakened, indicating a shift towards a more cautious monetary policy approach [14] - The central bank is expected to maintain a balanced approach in using monetary policy tools, focusing on supporting the economy while ensuring bank profitability [14] - Personal mortgage rates in China are nearing the average levels seen during the zero interest rate periods in the US, UK, and Japan, reflecting a stable monetary policy stance [14] - The central bank aims to keep interbank liquidity ample without resorting to excessive liquidity injections, supporting banks in capital replenishment and reducing funding costs [14] Summary by Sections Section 1: Weakening Expectations for Rate Cuts - The central bank's recent actions indicate a preference for a "prudent choice" in monetary policy, balancing multiple objectives [14] - The current credit interest rates are at historical lows, with a focus on maintaining bank interest margins while promoting low financing costs through market regulation [14] - The central bank's operations have resulted in a net withdrawal of 2,511 billion CNY, with a focus on maintaining liquidity stability [15] Section 2: Central Bank Dynamics and Market Rates - The central bank conducted 1,765 billion CNY in 7-day reverse repos at a rate of 1.40%, with a net withdrawal of 2,511 billion CNY overall [15] - Market rates have shown slight increases, with R001 and R007 rising to 1.39% and 1.50% respectively [15] - Upcoming liquidity events include a significant reverse repo maturity and tax payment dates, which may affect market liquidity [25] Section 3: Bank Financing Tracking - The total outstanding amount of interbank certificates of deposit (NCD) is 18.47 trillion CNY, with a weighted average interest rate of 1.67% [22] - The issuance of interbank certificates of deposit totaled 8,459 billion CNY, with a completion rate of 94.1% [22] - The commercial bank bond market remains stable, with no new issuances reported during the period [22]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Recommended" rating for the banking sector, highlighting multiple favorable factors including policy, fundamentals, and capital market conditions [4]. Core Insights - The "14th Five-Year Plan" emphasizes the acceleration of building a financial power, focusing on risk prevention, strong regulation, and promoting high-quality development, which will significantly reshape the banking industry's operating environment, business structure, profit models, and valuation systems [6][9]. - The banking sector is expected to undergo a critical phase of structural adjustment, model transformation, and valuation reshaping, shifting from total expansion to structural optimization to capture incremental business opportunities [4][6]. - The report identifies that the financial services provided by banks will increasingly focus on supporting the real economy, particularly in areas such as technology innovation, green finance, and consumption [13][15]. Summary by Sections 1. Financial Power Enhancement - The "14th Five-Year Plan" outlines the need for a robust central bank system and a comprehensive macro-prudential management framework, aiming to enhance the resilience of the banking system and support stable operations [9][10]. - Systemically important banks are likely to face stricter regulatory requirements, which may increase compliance costs in the short term but will strengthen the banking system in the long run [10][11]. 2. Capital Market Reforms - Continuous deepening of capital market reforms is expected to provide financial support for the banking sector's valuation reshaping, with an emphasis on enhancing the participation of long-term capital [15][4]. - The report notes that the average dividend payout ratio for banks is projected to remain stable at a relatively high level, with significant potential for long-term capital inflows [15]. 3. Differentiated Development - The plan encourages financial institutions to focus on their core businesses and improve governance, which will help reduce homogeneous competition in the banking sector [17][20]. - The optimization of the financial system is expected to enhance the pricing order and improve net interest margins for banks [20][22]. 4. Regulatory and Legislative Enhancements - The report highlights the acceleration of financial legislation, with new laws aimed at enhancing the regulatory framework for the banking sector, including the formulation of a financial law and a financial stability law [22][23]. - Comprehensive financial regulation will focus on preventing systemic risks, particularly in key areas such as real estate and local government debt [22][24].

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for the banking sector, highlighting the potential for earnings recovery and structural opportunities in the context of macroeconomic policies [4]. Core Insights - The banking sector is expected to experience earnings elasticity driven by optimized funding costs and the potential for increased non-interest income [4]. - The report forecasts a year-on-year revenue growth of 3.42% and net profit growth of 3.3% for listed banks in 2026, with Q1 expected to show a revenue increase of 2.8% and net profit growth of 2.58% [4][6]. Summary by Sections 1. Core Drivers of Banking Performance Improvement in 2026 - Credit growth remains stable with a focus on structural optimization, despite weaker-than-expected credit performance in January [6][7]. - The re-pricing of liabilities is anticipated to be a major source of earnings elasticity, with a significant amount of long-term deposits maturing in 2026 [4][39]. - The trend of deposit migration continues, alongside a recovery in the capital markets, which is expected to enhance non-interest income through wealth management and distribution of financial products [4][6]. - The initial recovery in the bond market, combined with a low base from the previous year, may boost Q1 performance, although challenges in the capital market are expected throughout the year [4][6]. - Risk clearance is accelerating, with sufficient provisions available for potential losses, particularly in the real estate sector [4][6]. 2. Performance Recovery Expected, Q1 Forecast to Exceed Last Year - The report anticipates that Q1 performance will be better than the same period last year, driven by optimized funding costs, potential for increased non-interest income, and the release of provisions [4][6]. 3. Investment Recommendations - The report suggests a positive outlook for the banking sector, emphasizing the continued accumulation of favorable factors for bank operations and the potential for earnings elasticity in 2026 [4][6]. - Specific stock recommendations include Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, Agricultural Bank of China, Postal Savings Bank of China, China Merchants Bank, Ningbo Bank, and Changshu Bank [4].