大幅降息对美国金融与经济不利

Group 1 - The Federal Reserve is expected to lower interest rates by 25 basis points in September, with three additional cuts anticipated due to signs of weakness in the U.S. labor market and concerns surrounding Trump's latest Federal Reserve appointments [2] - The poor non-farm payroll data for July, along with significant downward revisions for May and June, has raised concerns about the U.S. economy, leading to increased recession fears and uncertainty regarding trade policies [2][3] - Trump's push for substantial rate cuts aims to reduce U.S. debt risks and stimulate exports, but such cuts could lead to high inflation, a depreciating dollar, and increased import prices, complicating the economic landscape [3][4] Group 2 - The likelihood of consecutive rate cuts in September and the fourth quarter is higher, but the probability of three cuts remains uncertain unless employment data worsens significantly [4] - The strength of the U.S. stock market is a crucial indicator for the Federal Reserve's monetary policy, as evidenced during the subprime and COVID-19 crises [4][5] - High interest rates from the Federal Reserve are currently restraining inflation and suppressing stock market bubbles, while also attracting international arbitrage funds, thus maintaining liquidity in the U.S. market [5]