Group 1 - The U.S. labor market showed signs of slowing down, with non-farm payrolls increasing by only 73,000 in July, below the market expectation of 104,000, and a downward revision of nearly 260,000 jobs in the previous two months, resulting in an average increase of only 35,000 jobs over the past three months, the worst since the end of the pandemic [1] - The unemployment rate in July rose by 0.1 percentage points to 4.2%, in line with expectations, while average hourly earnings increased by 3.9% year-on-year, surpassing both June's increase and the expected 3.8% [1] - The ISM manufacturing index fell to 48 in July from 49 in June, indicating further contraction, contrary to expectations of a rebound to 49.5 [3] Group 2 - The Federal Reserve maintained the federal funds rate target range at 4.25% to 4.5% during the July meeting, with Chairman Powell emphasizing that the current moderate tightening policy remains appropriate despite risks in the labor market [3] - Market expectations indicate an 87% probability of two rate cuts by the end of the year, following a hawkish stance from the Federal Reserve [4] - Investment strategies suggest focusing on reasonably valued quality stocks that would benefit from rate cuts and diversifying stock portfolios into non-U.S. markets, while maintaining a neutral duration in bond portfolios to manage interest rate market volatility [4]
德林控股陈宁迪：美国就业市场放缓