Group 1 - Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman supports three interest rate cuts this year and urges the Fed to initiate a cut at the September meeting, believing that tariff-driven price increases are unlikely to sustain inflation [1][3] - Current investor sentiment indicates an 88.9% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, with market speculation shifting towards a potential 50 basis point cut [1][3] - Recent comments from various Federal Reserve officials, including San Francisco Fed President Daly and Minneapolis Fed President Kashkari, have signaled a dovish stance, advocating for a prompt rate cut [3] Group 2 - The shift in Federal Reserve officials' attitudes is largely attributed to the July non-farm payroll report, which showed a significant cooling in the labor market, with only 73,000 new jobs added, below expectations, and an upward revision of nearly 260,000 jobs in previous months [3] - The unemployment rate increased from 4.1% in June to 4.2% in July, further indicating labor market deterioration [3] - Upcoming key data releases, including the July CPI on August 12 and July PPI on August 14, will provide important insights for the Fed's monetary policy adjustments [3] Group 3 - Despite significant internal divisions within the Federal Reserve, market focus should remain on Chairman Powell, who may signal a shift in monetary policy focus from inflation to the labor market at the upcoming Jackson Hole Economic Symposium scheduled for August 21-23 [4]
事关降息!美联储大消息!
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-10 12:11