四年前的“回旋镖”，击中如今600481

Core Viewpoint - The aggressive expansion strategy of the company in the photovoltaic industry, fueled by high financial leverage, has led to significant losses and financial distress as the industry enters a deep adjustment phase [2][4][12]. Group 1: Investment Strategy and Expansion - In March 2021, the company announced a plan to invest 7 billion yuan in the photovoltaic silicon wafer production sector, which was significantly higher than its total assets of 4.109 billion yuan at the end of 2020 [2][8]. - From 2021 to 2022, the company announced a total of 28.7 billion yuan in investment plans for photovoltaic silicon wafers and components, despite warnings from the Shanghai Stock Exchange [9][10]. - The company utilized various financing methods, including loans, private placements, and convertible bonds, to support its aggressive expansion [10][11]. Group 2: Financial Performance and Risks - The company's debt ratio reached 83% by the end of the first quarter of 2023, indicating a high level of financial risk [4][17]. - Revenue figures for the company from 2021 to 2024 were 3.83 billion yuan, 14.48 billion yuan, 23.15 billion yuan, and 13.04 billion yuan, respectively, with net profits showing a decline to -2.134 billion yuan in 2024 [14][15]. - The company's gross margin for photovoltaic products fell to -16.63% in 2024, a decrease of nearly 25 percentage points from the previous year [14]. Group 3: Industry Context and Challenges - The photovoltaic industry is experiencing a significant downturn due to oversupply, leading to rapid price declines across the supply chain [14][24]. - The company has accumulated nearly 100 GW of single crystal silicon capacity but has not achieved corresponding profit returns due to the aggressive expansion strategy [14][15]. - The introduction of "anti-involution" policies in the industry aims to stabilize the market, but challenges remain, including a predicted decline in market demand in the second half of the year [24][30]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Credit Ratings - The company's credit rating was downgraded to AA- by a well-known rating agency, reflecting concerns over its financial stability and ability to manage operational risks [17][21]. - The company faces significant challenges in releasing new capacity effectively, with ongoing risks of further financial deterioration if market conditions do not improve [21][22].