俄罗斯停火只是前菜，中美之间的贸易谈判才是关键，这次俄罗斯出面先表态缓和一下，实际也只是阶段性的缓和

Group 1 - The recent statements from Russia regarding a ceasefire are seen as a temporary gesture rather than a definitive agreement, indicating that no comprehensive solution is currently available for the ongoing conflicts involving Ukraine, Russia, the US, and Europe [1][3] - The timing of Russia's statements coincides with the deadline for the US to decide on new tariffs against China, suggesting a strategic maneuver to create a favorable atmosphere for upcoming trade negotiations [3][5] - The potential outcomes of the US-China trade talks include not only a possible extension of tariff deadlines but also significant adjustments to existing tariffs and the timing of Federal Reserve interest rate cuts, which are critical indicators of cooperation between the two nations [6][10] Group 2 - The implications of monetary policy and tariffs are heavily influenced by political considerations, with interest rate cuts in the US aimed at boosting liquidity and creating a positive economic environment ahead of elections, while tariff adjustments could provide immediate benefits to China's export data [8][10] - Recent data shows that China's exports to the US have declined by 4.7% year-on-year in the first half of the year, highlighting the pressure on Chinese trade that could be alleviated by tariff reductions [8] - The upcoming meeting between Trump and Putin is strategically scheduled after the tariff deadline, indicating a sequence of negotiations that may suggest a coordinated approach between the US and Russia [10][12] Group 3 - The US's forthcoming tariff extension announcement is critical, with expectations leaning towards a three-month delay that aligns with the November elections, reflecting a balance between not giving China too much advantage and avoiding market disruption [10][13] - The involvement of the President in weighing tariff decisions is unusual and signals that these discussions are more about political negotiations than mere economic considerations [10][12] - The interconnectedness of these events raises questions about whether they are coincidental or part of a larger strategic plan [15]