美联储降息预期升温，套利交易员加大对新兴市场的押注

Core Viewpoint - The resurgence of carry trades among emerging market investors is driven by expectations of an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month, leading to a weaker dollar and increased interest in high-yield currencies [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Asset management firms such as Neuberger Berman and Aberdeen Group are increasing their positions in currencies from countries like Brazil, South Africa, and Egypt [1] - The weakening dollar and reduced volatility have created a favorable environment for carry trade strategies [1] - Earlier this year, these trades recorded double-digit returns, but a rebound in the dollar in July caused a temporary halt [1] Group 2: Economic Indicators - Recent poor U.S. employment data has strengthened market expectations that policymakers will have to cut rates next month to avoid an economic recession, reviving interest in arbitrage trading [1] - Institutions like DoubleLine and UBS have recently joined the bearish dollar camp, indicating a renewed narrative of dollar weakness [1] Group 3: Investment Preferences - Neuberger Berman's co-head of emerging market debt, Urquieta, expressed a limited likelihood of a significant dollar rebound, while noting that global economic growth remains relatively stable [1] - Urquieta favors carry trades in South Africa, Turkey, Brazil, Colombia, Indonesia, and South Korea [1]