Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-10 16:22Group 1: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Predictions - JPMorgan has raised its forecast for the Federal Reserve's first interest rate cut to September, abandoning the previous December timeline due to weak labor market data and changes in internal political dynamics [1][3] - The probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September is now at 89.4%, up from 80.3% a week prior, with expectations for a total of 75 basis points cut by the end of the year exceeding 50% [3] - The ISM services PMI for June fell to 50.1, indicating a slowdown, while the employment index dropped to 46.4, further suggesting labor market weakness [2] Group 2: Stock Market Performance - U.S. stock markets saw strong performance last week, with the Dow Jones up 1.3%, Nasdaq up 3.9%, and S&P 500 up 2.4%, nearing historical highs [4] - Over 450 S&P 500 companies reported earnings, with a growth rate of 13.2%, significantly higher than the 5.8% reported on July 1 [4] - Major tech stocks, including Apple, Tesla, Google, Nvidia, and Amazon, contributed to market gains, with Apple rising over 13% [4] Group 3: Investor Sentiment and Fund Flows - Despite the market rally, investors showed caution, with a net withdrawal of $13.7 billion from U.S. equity funds, the highest since June 25, while $78.85 billion flowed into money market funds [5] - UBS's Chief Investment Officer expects effective U.S. tariff rates to stabilize around 15%, which may suppress economic growth but not derail the stock market rebound [5] - Strong earnings reports, particularly from tech companies related to artificial intelligence, indicate potential for long-term growth despite recent economic uncertainties [5]