WTO：“对等关税”预计将在下半年 及2026年令美国进口承压

Core Viewpoint - The WTO predicts a 0.9% growth in global merchandise trade by 2025, an improvement from the previous forecast of -0.2%, but still below the pre-tariff increase estimate of 2.7% [1] Trade Growth Factors - Asian economies are expected to be the largest positive contributors to global merchandise trade growth in 2025, although their contribution in 2026 will be lower than previously forecasted [2] - North America is projected to have a negative impact on global trade growth in 2025 and 2026, but the negative effect this year will be less than previously estimated due to higher-than-expected early imports in the first quarter [2] - European contributions to trade growth have shifted from moderate positive to slightly negative for 2025, with energy-exporting economies also expected to see reduced positive contributions due to falling oil prices [2] Import and Export Trends - Europe’s exports and imports are projected to grow by -0.9% and 0.4% respectively, slightly weaker than the April forecast, while North American exports are expected to improve slightly to -4.2% [3] Tariff Impact on Trade - The WTO explains that the previous forecast of a 0.2% contraction in trade for 2025 was based on measures in effect as of April 14, including the suspension of "reciprocal tariffs" by the U.S. [4] - Following agreements between the U.S. and countries like the UK, the annual forecast was adjusted to 0.3%, but higher tariffs on steel and aluminum products brought the forecast back down to 0.1% [4] - The higher tariffs effective from August 7 are expected to increasingly pressure trade, although this will be offset by the positive effects of early procurement and inventory accumulation [4] Overall Trade Forecast - The WTO's improved forecast of 0.9% growth for 2025 is attributed to two positive factors and one negative factor: a significant increase in U.S. imports by 11% year-on-year due to early procurement and inventory buildup, and a more optimistic global macroeconomic outlook compared to April [5][6] - The early procurement is the main contributor to the updated forecast, with similar patterns observed in other countries due to concerns over retaliatory measures [6] - The recent tariff adjustments are expected to have an overall negative impact on global trade prospects, with the higher "reciprocal tariffs" expected to exert increasing pressure on U.S. imports and suppress exports from trade partners [6]