“8·11”汇改十周年： 市场化始终是最亮底色

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the evolution of China's exchange rate system since the 1994 reform, emphasizing the importance of market-driven mechanisms and the gradual move towards a more market-oriented exchange rate for the Renminbi (RMB) [1][2][12]. Summary by Sections Exchange Rate Reform History - The 1994 exchange rate reform established a managed floating exchange rate system, transitioning from a dual exchange rate system to a unified market-based rate [2][3]. - The initial phase of the reform faced significant challenges, including capital outflows and a decline in foreign reserves, leading to a depreciation of the RMB [2][3]. - By 2017, the introduction of a counter-cyclical adjustment factor improved the exchange rate mechanism, allowing for a more accurate reflection of economic fundamentals [2][3]. Market Dynamics and Currency Valuation - Since the 1994 reform, China's foreign exchange reserves have increased significantly, reaching $32,407 billion by March 2025, with a net increase driven primarily by trading activities [4]. - The RMB has appreciated against both bilateral and multilateral currencies, with a nominal effective exchange rate (NEER) increase of 64.2% since 1994 [4]. - The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has identified the RMB as one of the currencies that is stronger than its fundamental equilibrium exchange rate level [8]. Current Exchange Rate Challenges - The article highlights the ongoing challenges in achieving a balanced exchange rate, noting that market perceptions can lead to significant deviations from economic fundamentals [9][10]. - Recent trends indicate a potential undervaluation of the RMB despite a growing trade surplus, suggesting a complex interplay between domestic economic conditions and external pressures [7][12]. - The central bank has emphasized the need for stability in the RMB exchange rate, particularly in response to market fluctuations and external economic conditions [12][13]. Future Outlook - The article concludes that while significant progress has been made towards a market-oriented exchange rate, further efforts are needed to overcome the "fear of floating" and fully realize a market-driven exchange rate system [1][13].