猪价创年内新低 生猪“反内卷”大幕开启

Core Viewpoint - The current pig market is experiencing pressure on output, which will impact prices. The industry is undergoing capacity regulation, and maintaining pig prices is expected to be a long-term task. Medium to long-term pig prices will mainly be influenced by changes in production capacity, with potential for price increases if capacity reduction is significant. Continuous observation of policy sustainability and implementation effects is necessary [1][4]. Industry Overview - The Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs has indicated that China's pig production capacity is currently high, prompting a comprehensive adjustment to reduce about 1 million breeding sows to prevent extreme fluctuations in production and prices [1][2]. - As of June, the national pig inventory was 424 million heads, with breeding sows at 40.43 million, slightly above the reasonable capacity limit. This suggests an increase in pig output in the second half of the year and after the Spring Festival next year [3][4]. - The current pig cycle is characterized by shorter cycles, increased short-term volatility, and strong production capacity, with a supply-demand imbalance leading to weak demand and strong supply [4]. Price Trends - As of August 10, domestic pig prices reached a new low of 13.77 yuan/kg, down approximately 13.9% from the beginning of the year and below the industry's breakeven point. The price drop is attributed to weak demand during the traditional summer consumption lull [3][5]. - The price of pigs has decreased from about 21.3 yuan/kg in the third quarter of last year to 13.77 yuan/kg, marking a cumulative decline of 35.3% [5]. Company Impact - The decline in pig prices has adversely affected the profitability of listed pig companies. For instance, Muyuan Foods reported a net profit of 3.208 billion yuan in Q2 2024, but saw a decline in performance in subsequent quarters due to falling prices [5][6]. - In July, major pig companies like Muyuan, Wens Foodstuffs, and New Hope reported significant declines in sales volume and revenue, with Muyuan's sales volume dropping to a new low since March [6][7]. - The sales revenue for these companies in July decreased significantly, with Muyuan's revenue down 10.41% year-on-year, and Wens and New Hope also experiencing declines [6][7]. Future Outlook - The policy of capacity regulation aims to stabilize the industry and reduce price volatility, potentially leading to a more concentrated market with larger, more efficient producers benefiting from improved profit margins [2][7]. - The industry is expected to transition from high volatility to a more stable and high-quality development phase, with a focus on cost control and cash flow capabilities among leading companies [2][7].