去全球化研究报告：新全球贸易秩序下的赢家与输家

Group 1 - Globalization is reversing, with global trade's share of industrial output declining since 2008, indicating the onset of a "de-globalization" era [1] - China's manufacturing capital significantly exceeds that of other countries, with the manufacturing GDP of the US, EU, Japan, Germany, South Korea, and India each being less than 20% of China's [1] - The global value chain is undergoing restructuring, with the US's import share from China dropping to 17% in 2024, while countries like Vietnam and India are increasing their shares [1][2] Group 2 - US companies have greatly benefited from globalization, with S&P 500 (excluding financials) cost of goods sold as a percentage of sales decreasing from 70% in 2000 to 62% in 2024 [1][2] - However, US companies are highly dependent on Asian supply chains, with over 30% of suppliers located in Asia across various sectors [1][2] - The cost of reshoring manufacturing to the US is prohibitively high, with minimum wages in the US being 27 times higher than in Vietnam and 10 times higher than in Mexico [1][2] Group 3 - In Europe, the EU's trade deficit with China has expanded, exceeding 60 billion euros in 2024, while energy security concerns have prompted increased investment in domestic energy infrastructure [1] - European luxury brands like H&M, Zara, and Primark face significant challenges as over 80% of their production capacity remains in Asia amid the de-globalization trend [2] - Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) in manufacturing is accelerating towards countries like Vietnam, India, Indonesia, and Malaysia, with Vietnam's FDI reaching 25 billion USD in 2024 [2]