生猪市场：价格下跌，产能充裕待调控

Core Insights - The current trend shows a slight decline in live pig spot prices, with the national average price at 13.94 yuan/kg, down 0.08 yuan/kg from last week, reflecting a 0.57% week-on-week decrease and a 31.13% year-on-year decrease [1] - The decline in prices is attributed to weak terminal consumption and an oversupply situation, although policy measures for capacity control may limit further price drops [1] Supply and Demand Dynamics - The breeding sow inventory reached 40.43 million heads as of June 2025, which is 103.7% of the normal holding capacity, indicating a potentially high supply of live pigs in the future [1] - The average pigs per sow (PSY) has increased from 24 to over 26, with some leading enterprises nearing 29, suggesting improved production efficiency [1] - The mid-term outlook indicates that the supply of live pigs will remain ample, with an expected increase in slaughter volume in the second half of the year, unless there is a significant rise in pork consumption [1] Policy Measures - On July 23, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs proposed several measures for the development of the pig industry, focusing on strict implementation of capacity control, reasonable culling of breeding sows, and limiting new production capacity [1] - Long-term improvements in market supply-demand relationships and price stabilization are anticipated if the breeding sow inventory is reduced to 39.5 million heads [1]