国内油脂：受马棕累库与海外政策影响走势分化

Core Viewpoint - The short-term trend of domestic oils is expected to diverge, with soybean oil anticipated to remain strong due to various factors including weather conditions and international policies [1] Group 1: Weather Impact on Soybean Growth - Weather forecasts indicate below-average rainfall in the eastern corn belt and northern Great Plains over the next two weeks, which may affect soybean growth [1] Group 2: International Policies and Demand - The U.S. biodiesel policy is expected to positively influence U.S. soybean oil demand, while Brazil has raised its biodiesel blending ratio and Indonesia's B40 implementation is progressing well, both of which are favorable for domestic oils [1] Group 3: Palm Oil Market Dynamics - MPOA data shows that Malaysian palm oil production is projected to increase by 9.01% for July, with an estimated inventory of 2.25 million tons, a 10.8% increase from June, and production of 1.83 million tons, an 8% increase from June [1] - Export volume for palm oil is expected to be 1.3 million tons, a 3.2% increase from June, but high-frequency data suggests an increase in production and a decrease in exports, raising concerns about potential inventory accumulation [1] Group 4: Domestic Oil Inventory and Trade Relations - Domestic canola oil inventory has slightly decreased but remains at historically high levels, and improved trade relations between China and Australia may lead to increased canola seed imports from Australia [1] Group 5: Overall Market Outlook - Overall, due to the expected accumulation of Malaysian palm oil and favorable international biodiesel policies, the domestic oil market is likely to experience a divergence in short-term trends, with soybean oil expected to perform strongly while canola and palm oil may experience fluctuations [1]