路博迈、安本集团等：加码新兴市场货币利差交易

Core Viewpoint - Emerging market spread trading is experiencing a resurgence due to market expectations of a Federal Reserve rate cut next month, leading to a weaker dollar and increased interest in high-yield currencies [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - Asset management firms such as Loomis Sayles and Aberdeen are increasing their positions in currencies from countries like Brazil, South Africa, and Egypt [1] - Earlier this year, these types of trades yielded double-digit returns, but the momentum slowed in July due to a rebound in the dollar [1] - Recent poor U.S. employment data has strengthened rate cut expectations, driving an increase in arbitrage trading [1] Group 2: Institutional Perspectives - Firms like DoubleLine and UBS have joined the bearish dollar camp, stating that "the bearish narrative on the dollar has returned" [1] - Loomis Sayles' co-head of emerging market debt, Urquieta, believes the likelihood of a significant dollar rebound is limited, citing overall global growth as stable [1] - Urquieta favors carry trades in South Africa, Turkey, and Brazil [1]