黄金：2025年多指标变动，下半年或继续上攻

Core Viewpoint - Since 2025, gold and silver indices have shown significant increases, influenced by various factors including inflation rates, interest rates, and supply-demand dynamics [1] Inflation - The Consumer Price Index (CPI) peaked at 9.1% in June 2022 and has since shown a moderate decline, with core CPI and core Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) also trending downwards. However, CPI rebounded in February 2024, with June 2025 CPI rising 2.7%, exceeding expectations, and core CPI at 2.9%, in line with forecasts. PCE figures for June 2025 also surpassed market expectations, indicating a two-month inflation increase [1] Interest Rates - U.S. mid-term treasury yields have fluctuated, declining until January 2023, then rebounding since February 2024, approaching last year's highs before retreating again. The yields are currently experiencing wide fluctuations near 24-year lows [1] Supply and Demand - The gold market is experiencing a tight balance between supply and demand, with a slight increase in domestic supply and a notable rise in investment demand. Central banks continue to purchase over 1,000 tons of gold, maintaining a tight balance in the domestic market. Investment demand is expected to surge in the first half of 2025 [1] Employment Data - In July 2025, the U.S. added 73,000 jobs, marking a nine-month low, with average hourly earnings growth steady at 0.3% and an unemployment rate of 4.2%. Non-farm employment data significantly underperformed expectations [1] Market Outlook - Recent trends show gold futures rising after a strong opening, with Chicago gold surpassing previous highs. The focus is on whether Shanghai gold can break through its upper range. The market has been consolidating for several months, with potential support at the lower range. In the second half of 2025, central bank purchases, ETF investments, and a weak dollar are expected to support gold's wide fluctuations. A Fed rate cut is anticipated in September, with potential for further gold price increases in Q4 [1] Investment Strategy - The recommendation is to hold long positions in gold and observe market conditions for potential increases in positions, while maintaining a cautious stance on options [1]