路博迈、安本等：加码新兴市场货币套利交易

Core Viewpoint - The expectation of a Federal Reserve interest rate cut has increased, leading to a resurgence in carry trades among emerging market investors as the dollar weakens and interest in high-yield currencies rises [1] Group 1: Market Dynamics - The carry trade strategy is gaining traction among investors in emerging markets, with firms like Loomis Sayles and Aberdeen Group increasing their positions in currencies from Brazil, South Africa, and Egypt [1] - The softening of the dollar and reduced volatility have created a favorable environment for these trading strategies [1] Group 2: Performance and Expectations - Earlier this year, carry trades yielded double-digit returns, but these were paused in July due to a rebound in the dollar [1] - Recent poor U.S. employment data has heightened expectations that the Federal Reserve may need to cut rates next month to avoid a recession, reviving interest in carry trades [1] Group 3: Institutional Sentiment - Institutions like DoubleLine and UBS have recently joined the bearish sentiment on the dollar, indicating a renewed narrative of dollar weakness [1] - Loomis Sayles' co-head of emerging market debt, Urquieta, expressed limited potential for a significant rebound in the dollar, while noting that global growth remains relatively stable [1]