美国降息概率：91.5%？

Group 1 - The potential candidates for the next Federal Reserve Chair are influencing interest rate cut expectations and capital market trends, with the Nasdaq Composite Index reaching a new closing high [1] - Federal Reserve Vice Chair Michelle Bowman supports three interest rate cuts this year and suggests starting the cuts in the September meeting, which has boosted market optimism [1][5] - Current market expectations indicate a 91.5% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, according to CME FedWatch [1][9] Group 2 - The upcoming release of the U.S. July CPI data is highly anticipated, with expectations of a year-over-year increase from June's 2.7% to 2.8% [3] - Core CPI is expected to rise by 0.1 percentage points, reaching 3% year-over-year and 0.3% month-over-month, reflecting the impact of tariffs on prices [3] - Wells Fargo economists believe the July CPI data will be crucial for assessing whether the Federal Reserve needs to adjust its monetary policy, especially after a disappointing non-farm payroll report [3] Group 3 - This week, several major Chinese companies, including Tencent, JD.com, and NetEase, will report their earnings, alongside U.S. companies like Oklo Inc., Sea, and Circle [4]