美股三大指数集体收高，市场关注7月通胀数据

Market Performance - The three major U.S. stock indices collectively rose over the past week, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average increasing by 1.35% to 44,175.61 points, the Nasdaq Composite rising by 3.87% to 21,450.02 points, and the S&P 500 gaining 2.43% to 6,389.45 points [1] - Apple Inc. saw its stock price surge by 13%, marking its best weekly performance since July 2020, following the announcement of a $600 billion investment plan in the U.S. over the next four years [1] Economic Indicators - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for July was significantly below expectations, leading to concerns about growth prospects and causing the VIX index to rise above 20 [2] - The probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September increased from 40% to 86% due to weak employment data, with expectations for at least two rate cuts this year [2] Valuation and Market Trends - Year-to-date, the Dow Jones has risen by 3.83%, the Nasdaq by 11.08%, and the S&P 500 by 8.63% [3] - Current valuations are at historical highs, with the S&P 500's price-to-earnings ratio exceeding 22, significantly above the long-term average of 15.8 [3] - Historically, August and September have been the worst-performing months for the S&P 500, with average declines of 0.6% and 0.8%, respectively [3] Future Outlook - The liquidity environment and optimistic sentiment are expected to support the U.S. stock market, with rate cut expectations being a key factor [4] - Upcoming technology product launches are anticipated to stimulate sectors such as artificial intelligence and robotics [4] - Despite short-term adjustments, there is a belief that the market will rebound, particularly in Asian markets, which are seen as undervalued compared to the U.S. [3][4] Risks and Concerns - Long-term risks remain, particularly regarding the negative impact of U.S. policies on the macro economy, with a focus on employment and inflation indicators [5] - A potential rise in unemployment and deteriorating non-farm payroll data could lead to recession expectations, with the possibility of a market decline exceeding 20% if inflation pressures also rise [5] - The upcoming U.S. Consumer Price Index (CPI) report is expected to influence market volatility, with predictions of a 2.8% year-over-year increase for July [6]