光伏"反内卷"走向何方?摩根大通详解"去产能"两套方案

Core Viewpoint - The discussion around the photovoltaic industry's internal competition continues, with experts indicating that the path forward is fraught with challenges, particularly regarding the establishment of an industry consolidation fund and the potential for forced capacity shutdowns if consensus is not reached by late 2025 [1][3][6]. Group 1: Industry Consolidation Fund - Morgan Stanley reported that 16 polysilicon manufacturers and the China Photovoltaic Industry Association are discussing the establishment of an industry consolidation fund, but key obstacles remain, including the lack of agreement from state-owned banks to provide loans [1][5]. - The fund aims to acquire and shut down a portion of the capacity of smaller companies, with the China Photovoltaic Industry Association overseeing the distribution of production quotas to balance supply and demand [5]. - There is uncertainty regarding the pricing for the acquisition and shutdown of capacity, as well as internal disagreements among leading companies about how much capacity to eliminate [5][6]. Group 2: Forced Shutdown of Low-Efficiency Capacity - If no agreement is reached by September-October 2025, regulatory authorities may enforce the closure of low-efficiency polysilicon production, specifically targeting those with an energy consumption exceeding 61 kWh/kg [6]. - Even with these measures, the industry is expected to remain oversupplied, indicating that neither the consolidation fund nor forced shutdowns alone will resolve the underlying issues of overcapacity [6][7]. Group 3: Market Dynamics and Price Fluctuations - Since June 30, the A-share photovoltaic index has rebounded over 10%, but the industry is likely to experience continued volatility due to a cycle of "policy stimulus—policy failure" [1][8]. - The price of polysilicon has recently increased from 35 yuan/kg to 44 yuan/kg, aligning with target price levels set by the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, but other segments of the supply chain are expected to gradually approach these target prices as well [7]. - The lack of a unified authority to manage production levels has led to market expectations of regulatory interventions, which have influenced price movements in the polysilicon market [7][8].