美国关税战终结疫情后反弹，全球贸易增速放缓

Core Viewpoint - The World Trade Organization (WTO) highlights that recent tariff measures are significantly impacting global trade, with tariff uncertainty putting pressure on business confidence, investment, and supply chains, making it one of the most destructive forces in the global trade environment [6]. Group 1: Current Trade Environment - Global trade is currently stagnant, and recent data suggests that this slowdown may deepen due to weak consumer demand, high interest rates, and tighter fiscal policies, which are suppressing cross-border goods flow [4][6]. - The U.S. trade deficit narrowed by 16.0% in June to $60.2 billion, with the goods trade deficit dropping by 10.8% to its lowest level since September 2023 [6]. Group 2: U.S. Tariff Policies - The "reciprocal tariff" policy initiated during President Trump's second term has been fully implemented, creating a differentiated tariff system covering strategic industries like steel, aluminum, and copper, affecting 69 trade partners with tariffs ranging from 10% to 50% [5]. - The average tariff rate in the U.S. has surged from 2%-3% before Trump's potential return to 18.3%, marking the highest level since 1934 [6]. Group 3: Future Trade Projections - The WTO has downgraded the global goods trade growth forecast for 2026 from 2.5% to 1.8%, warning that recent tariff adjustments will negatively impact global trade prospects [9]. - Analysts from Capital Economics indicate that the post-pandemic trade rebound has ended, with trade volumes now stagnating, and structural and cyclical factors are dragging down trade [9]. Group 4: Challenges for Developing Countries - A recent UN report highlights that landlocked developing countries face significant structural inequalities in the global economic system, with transportation costs being 40% higher than coastal countries due to geographical disadvantages [10]. - Exports from landlocked developing countries to China have doubled since 2015, but imports have grown even faster, reaching approximately $78.3 billion in 2024, indicating a trade imbalance [10].