美联储降息预期升温，鲍威尔继任者名单再度扩容

Group 1 - Recent poor U.S. employment data has strengthened market expectations for interest rate cuts next month to avoid economic recession, leading to a resurgence in arbitrage trading [1] - Institutions such as DoubleLine and UBS have joined the bearish dollar camp, indicating that the "bearish narrative for the dollar is back" [1] - The list of potential successors for Federal Reserve Chairman Powell has expanded, with former St. Louis Fed President James Bullard and former economic advisor to President Bush, Mark Sobel, now in the running, bringing the total to about 10 candidates [1] Group 2 - Market expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts have significantly increased, with JPMorgan advancing its forecast for the first cut to September and anticipating three cuts within the year [1] - JPMorgan economist Michael Feroli noted that signs of a weak labor market and uncertainty from Trump's new Fed nominations prompted the bank to move its rate cut expectation from December to September, predicting a reduction of the benchmark rate to 3.25% to 3.5% [1] - The August employment data will be crucial, as a rise in the unemployment rate to 4.4% or higher could support larger rate cuts [1]