【五矿信托研报】8月资产配置月度报告：“反内卷”推升风险偏好，美联储降息概率大增

Economic Overview - In July, the US economy showed resilience, with market risk aversion decreasing and the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut in September fluctuating [1] - Emerging markets continued to outperform developed markets, while domestic "anti-involution" policies and the Yajiang hydropower project led to a surge in commodity futures prices [1] - The Shanghai Composite Index broke through 3600 points, reaching a new high for the year, with the Wind All A Index rising by 4.75% for the month [1][3] Market Performance - The Hang Seng Index recorded a 2.91% gain in July, with southbound funds net buying approximately 124 billion yuan [1] - The bond market remained stable in early July but adjusted later in the month due to the impact of "anti-involution" policies and market sentiment fluctuations [1] - By the end of July, the yield on 10-year government bonds rose by nearly 6 basis points to 1.70%, indicating a steepening yield curve [1] Commodity Market - The commodity market experienced overall fluctuations, with precious metals showing high volatility; international gold prices fell by 0.72% to $3288.26 per ounce [2] - Oil prices showed a strong upward trend, with Brent crude oil rising by 7.73% to $71.78 per barrel [2] - The black metal sector rebounded significantly, with rebar prices increasing by 6.94% to 3205 yuan per ton [2] Economic Data - The National Bureau of Statistics reported that China's GDP for the first half of the year was 66,053.6 billion yuan, growing by 5.3% year-on-year [3][4] - Industrial production accelerated, with a year-on-year increase of 6.4% in the first half of the year, driven by strong export resilience and domestic demand policies [3] - Retail sales growth slowed to 5.0% year-on-year, with June's growth at 4.8%, below market expectations [4] Policy Insights - The Political Bureau of the Central Committee emphasized the need for stable and flexible macroeconomic policies to support employment and market expectations [7][8] - The meeting highlighted the importance of maintaining policy continuity and implementing proactive fiscal policies alongside moderate monetary easing [7] - The focus on expanding domestic demand and improving consumption was reiterated, with an emphasis on high-quality development [7] Investment Strategies - The market showed a significant increase in trading volume, with daily average turnover rising to approximately 1.6 trillion yuan [11] - The A-share financing balance reached a five-year high of 1.98 trillion yuan, indicating increased investor confidence [11] - The overall market sentiment remains positive, with expectations of a potential "risk-on" environment driven by favorable monetary policies and economic data [12][18]