CATL(SZ:300750) Mei Ri Jing Ji Xin Wen·2025-08-11 02:12Core Viewpoint - The recent suspension of lithium mining operations in Yichun, Jiangxi, particularly by Ningde Times, has significantly impacted lithium carbonate prices, leading to a surge in market activity and price increases [1][2][6]. Group 1: Company Impact - Ningde Times' subsidiary, Yichun Times New Energy Mining Co., has halted operations at the Zhenkouli-Fengxin County mining area due to the expiration of its mining license, which was initially obtained on August 9, 2022, and is set to expire on August 9, 2025 [1][5]. - The company has stated that the suspension will not significantly affect its overall operations and is in the process of applying for a mining license extension [1][4]. - The suspension is expected to impact the supply of lithium carbonate, with estimates suggesting a potential reduction of 7,000 to 8,000 tons of lithium carbonate equivalent per month due to similar issues faced by other lithium mines in the region [6]. Group 2: Market Reaction - Following the news of the mining suspension, lithium carbonate futures surged, with the main contract rising by 8% to 81,000 CNY per ton on August 11 [2][3]. - Australian lithium stocks experienced significant gains, with Liontown Resources up over 22% and Pilbara Minerals up over 17% [3]. - Hong Kong-listed lithium mining stocks also saw increases, with Tianqi Lithium up 15% and Ganfeng Lithium up over 12% [4]. Group 3: Regulatory Context - The new Mineral Resources Law, effective July 1, 2025, will classify lithium as an independent mineral and raise the standards for recognizing associated minerals, which may affect resource tax calculations and mining economics [4][6]. - The need for companies to balance mineral reclassification, resource tax payments, and technological upgrades is highlighted as a potential reason for the mining suspension [4]. Group 4: Supply and Demand Dynamics - As of August 8, the average market price for battery-grade lithium carbonate was 72,000 CNY per ton, reflecting a 0.91% increase since August 1 [7]. - The total inventory of lithium carbonate as of August 7 was 142,400 tons, with upstream smelting plants reducing inventory by 9,590 tons [7]. - Market demand is showing signs of recovery, with increased purchasing activity noted in August, although actual transactions remain primarily driven by rigid demand [7].