美豆、国内豆粕：丰产预期强，USDA报告数据有调整

Core Viewpoint - The soybean futures market is experiencing fluctuations, influenced by various factors including favorable growing conditions for new season soybeans and weak demand from China [1] Group 1: Market Conditions - The main soybean futures are trading around 990 cents, with external market support lacking [1] - The latest report indicates that 69% of the soybean crop is rated good to excellent, the best level for this time of year in nearly five years [1] - Only 3% of the planting area is affected by drought, with soil moisture levels allowing for some flexibility [1] Group 2: Demand and Supply Dynamics - China has not initiated new season soybean purchases, maintaining a 23% tariff on imports, which contributes to weak demand for U.S. soybeans [1] - If no significant macroeconomic news emerges, the support level of 1000 cents may turn into a resistance level, with expectations of increased ending stocks for U.S. soybeans [1] Group 3: Domestic Market Trends - Domestic soybean meal prices are currently stronger than external prices, leading to a divergence in trends [1] - Recent transactions in domestic soybean meal exceeded 2 million tons in a single day, primarily for forward contracts, indicating concerns about future supply [1] Group 4: Future Projections - The USDA's upcoming report is anticipated to reveal potential bearish factors, with analysts projecting global soybean ending stocks for the 2025/26 season at 127.42 million tons [1] - For the U.S. 2024/25 season, ending stocks are expected to be 347 million bushels, with a projected production of 4.365 billion bushels and a yield of 52.9 bushels per acre [1]