高盛市场团队视角：印度跌很多但没到抄底，日本面临短期回调风险，思考“低配美国科技”策略

Group 1: Indian Market - The Indian market appears to be nearing a "panic peak," but caution is advised before buying in [2] - Since the downgrade in October, the MSCI India Index has underperformed the MSCI Global Index by nearly 20% [2] - The Indian market has seen a net outflow of $12 billion in foreign investments this year [2] - Current valuations are still above historical averages by more than one standard deviation, and corporate earnings have shown a sequential decline of 7% [2] Group 2: Japanese Market - The Japanese Topix index has recently surpassed the 3000-point mark, but there are potential risks of a pullback [3] - Valuations have returned to a price-to-earnings ratio of 15, indicating the market is in an overbought territory [3] - Historically, August has been the weakest month for the Topix index, raising concerns about future performance [3] Group 3: U.S. Technology Stocks - A significant question raised is whether a low allocation to U.S. technology, media, and telecommunications (TMT) could be effective [4] - The "Magnificent Seven" tech index has outperformed the MSCI Global Index by 220% over the past five years [4] - The current market breadth is considered the worst on record, suggesting a reevaluation of investment strategies [4] Group 4: Federal Reserve Outlook - Despite signs of a "stall-speed" economy, the Federal Reserve is expected to maintain a gradual rate-cutting approach [5] - The Fed is projected to cut rates by 25 basis points in September, October, and December, with two additional cuts in 2026 [5] - The current policy environment is markedly different from when rates were at 5.25%-5.50%, indicating a less restrictive stance [5]