市场对美联储9月降息“过于确定”，大摩：未来数据很重要，特别是美国CPI

Group 1 - The downward revision of non-farm payroll data for May and June has shifted the market's narrative regarding the U.S. economy, with interest rate markets now viewing a rate cut in September as nearly certain [1] - Morgan Stanley's chief global economist, Seth Carpenter, indicates that while the market anticipates a rate cut, many variables remain to be observed, particularly upcoming economic data [1] - The upcoming CPI data is crucial, especially in understanding how tariffs influence inflation, with historical data suggesting a lag of 3 to 5 months for the full impact of tariffs to manifest [1][2] Group 2 - Despite signs of a weakening labor market, inflationary pressures are building, which is a key argument against rate cuts [2] - The report highlights that tariffs are a significant driver of inflation, with the effects showing a clear lag; the effective tariff rate in June was reported at 8.9%, significantly lower than the announced rate of over 15% [2] - Companies, particularly in the automotive sector, are delaying price increases through inventory management, which further postpones the visible impact of inflation [2] Group 3 - The Federal Reserve's decision in September will require balancing between slowing employment and rising inflation, with trade agreement uncertainties complicating the situation [3] - The upcoming CPI report is expected to show a rise in core CPI from 0.23% to 0.32% year-on-year, driven by tariff-affected core goods [3] - Additional economic data, including another employment report and CPI report, will be released before the September FOMC meeting, making the decision environment more complex [3]