Group 1 - Oil prices have limited downside potential, but a rebound depends on expectations of Federal Reserve rate cuts and increased oil purchases from India [1][3] - OPEC's strategy has shifted from "price stabilization" to "market share," leading to increased global oil supply and downward pressure on prices [2][3] - U.S. gasoline demand during the driving season has been below 9 million barrels per day, lower than the five-year average, indicating weak consumption [2][3] Group 2 - Recent U.S. non-farm payroll data significantly missed market expectations, raising concerns about a potential economic recession and weakening oil demand forecasts [2][3] - Geopolitical risks, including the ongoing Russia-Ukraine conflict and potential U.S. sanctions on Russia, are contributing to uncertainty in global oil demand [3] - Future oil price movements will depend on the rebalancing of soft power factors, including tariff negotiations, oil-producing countries' capacity efficiency, and geopolitical reconciliation processes [3]
邓正红能源软实力：供应预期回升 宏观情绪转弱 空头主导油价 下行空间有限
Sou Hu Cai Jing·2025-08-11 04:50