美联储重磅！降息概率89.4%？

Group 1: Market Performance - US stock market showed strong performance last week, with the Dow Jones up 1.3%, Nasdaq up 3.9%, and S&P 500 up 2.4%, nearing historical highs [6] - Over 450 companies in the S&P 500 reported earnings, with a growth rate of 13.2%, significantly higher than 5.8% on July 1 [6] - Major tech stocks like Apple surged over 13%, while Tesla, Google, Nvidia, and Amazon also performed well [6] Group 2: Economic Indicators - The ISM services PMI for June fell 0.7 points to 50.1, below expectations and close to the threshold, with the employment index dropping to 46.4 [3] - Initial jobless claims rose from 219,000 to 226,000, exceeding market expectations of 220,000, while continuing claims increased by 38,000 to 1.971 million [3] - The FedWatch tool indicates an 89.4% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut in September, up from 80.3% the previous week [4] Group 3: Investor Sentiment - Despite the market rally, investors withdrew a net $13.7 billion from US equity funds, the highest since June 25, while buying $78.85 billion in money market funds [6] - UBS's Chief Investment Officer expects the effective US tariff rate to stabilize around 15%, which may suppress economic growth but not derail the stock market rebound [6] - Upcoming inflation and retail sales reports could influence market volatility, with potential for further stock market gains if inflation cools or retail sales show strength [7]