新车销量再攀新高，难掩汽修需求疲软

Core Insights - The automotive repair industry is experiencing a significant decline in demand, with a 5% drop in market value and a 4% decrease in service visits in the first half of 2025, despite a growing vehicle ownership rate in China [8][10]. - The automotive repair industry's prosperity index has shown a downward trend, particularly in May and June, indicating a seasonal decline exacerbated by structural changes in consumer behavior and market dynamics [3][4][10]. Vehicle Ownership and New Energy Vehicles - As of June 30, the total number of motor vehicles in China reached 460 million, with 359 million being cars. The number of new energy vehicles (NEVs) reached 36.89 million, accounting for 10.27% of total cars, with pure electric vehicles making up 69.23% of NEVs [1]. - In the first half of 2025, new registrations of NEVs totaled 5.62 million, marking a year-on-year increase of 27.86%, setting a historical record for the same period [1]. Repair Industry Performance - The automotive repair industry's prosperity index for the first half of 2025 was below the 50% threshold, indicating a contraction in the market. The index fluctuated significantly, with January and March showing lower figures compared to the previous year [2][3]. - The index for the repair industry in April was notably high due to promotional activities from major e-commerce platforms, but it fell sharply in May, reflecting the traditional seasonal decline [3][4]. New Energy Vehicle Repair Market - The prosperity index for the NEV repair sector showed a similar trend to the overall repair industry, with April's index at 59.1%, but declining in May and June [4]. - The shift from fuel to electric vehicles has led to longer maintenance cycles, with electric vehicles requiring maintenance 40% less frequently than traditional fuel vehicles, contributing to the overall decline in repair demand [4][10]. Market Dynamics and Challenges - The automotive repair industry is facing dual pressures from the transition to new energy vehicles and changes in consumer behavior, leading to a significant reduction in service frequency and demand [6][10]. - The competition within the industry is intensifying, with larger firms maintaining stability while smaller businesses struggle, leading to a wave of closures among repair shops [10][11]. Structural Changes in Supply and Demand - The automotive repair market is undergoing structural changes, with a notable decline in the number of 4S dealerships and a shift towards independent repair shops [14]. - The demand for specialized services, such as micro-repairs and NEV-specific maintenance, is increasing, indicating a potential area for growth despite overall market contraction [15][19]. Future Outlook and Strategies - The industry must adapt to the changing landscape by focusing on specialized services, enhancing operational efficiency, and leveraging digital marketing strategies to attract customers [20][21]. - The next three years are critical for the NEV tire replacement market, as early models enter their replacement cycles, presenting opportunities for businesses that can effectively meet this demand [20].