Sinomine(SZ:002738) 智通财经网·2025-08-11 06:49Core Viewpoint - Recent fluctuations in lithium prices are primarily driven by macroeconomic sentiments related to "anti-involution" and supply concerns stemming from compliance issues with mining permits in Jiangxi, particularly with a major mine's permit expiring on August 9 [1][2][3] Price Trends - As of the week of August 4-8, lithium carbonate futures rose by 8.9% to 75,000 yuan/ton, while lithium spodumene increased by 2.9% to 777 USD/ton, and lithium mica rose by 5.3% to 1,800 yuan/ton [2][3] Supply Concerns - The expiration of a mining permit for a major mine in Jiangxi, which has a monthly production capacity of approximately 10,000 tons of LCE, raises concerns about supply tightness, especially with the upcoming traditional stocking season [2][3] - There are seven other major lithium mines in Jiangxi facing permit issues, which could lead to significant supply constraints if all were to halt production [2][3] Demand Outlook - The demand from the downstream battery sector has exceeded expectations, with lithium battery production in July reaching 144 GWh, a year-on-year increase of 37% [3] - Cumulative production from January to July was 944 GWh, up 50% year-on-year, indicating strong demand that may support lithium price resilience [3] Investment Recommendations - Companies with low-cost resource supply and diversified non-lithium businesses are seen as having a competitive advantage, with a recommendation for Zhongmin Resources (002738.SZ) and related companies including Tianqi Lithium (002466.SZ), Ganfeng Lithium (002460.SZ), and Yongxing Materials (002756.SZ) [4]