证券研究报告|行业研究周报 ►印尼 RKAB 审批进度不及预期，供应不确定性对镍矿 价格或有支撑 截止到 3 月 20 日，LME 镍现货结算价报收 16770 美元/ 吨，较 3 月 13 日下跌 3.29%，LME 镍总库存为 283512 吨， 较 3 月 13 日减少 0.40%；沪镍报收 13.33 万元/吨，较 3 月 13 日价格下跌 2.73%，沪镍库存为 63661 吨，较 3 月 13 日增加 0.02%；截止到 3 月 20 日，硫酸镍报收 3.36 万元/吨，较 3 月 13 日价格上涨 2.13%。根据 SMM，目前，ESDM 截至 3 月中 旬已批准镍矿配额约 1 亿吨的 RKAB 配额，剩余的 1.6 亿至 1.7 亿吨预计将在 3 月底前完成审批。然而，受 3 月 18 日至 24 日开斋节假期影响，审批进度或将出现滞后，导致短期内 供应紧张局面难以缓解。此外，根据金十数据 3 月 9 日消息， 在上月一处工厂废弃物区域发生致命山体滑坡后，印尼四家镍 厂已暂时停产。据知情人士透露，位于印尼苏拉威西岛莫罗瓦 利工业园(印尼大型镍生产中心)运营的四座高压酸浸(HPAL)工 厂已停产 ...

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for several companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, including Zijin Mining, China Gold International, and Shandong Gold [4]. Core Insights - The report highlights ongoing inflationary pressures due to geopolitical tensions, particularly the US-Iran conflict, which has led to a significant drop in gold prices, marking the largest weekly decline in 43 years. However, the long-term outlook for gold remains positive due to central bank purchases and weakening US dollar credit [2]. - The report emphasizes the dichotomy in the gold market between short-term panic and mid-term opportunities, suggesting that the demand for safe-haven assets will likely support gold prices in the future [2]. - Industrial demand for silver may continue to be impacted by the trend of cheap metalization in photovoltaic materials, which could lead to increased costs for silver paste and a potential upward shift in the gold-silver ratio [2]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry and Company Performance - The report notes a significant decline in the SW Non-ferrous Index, which fell by 12.29% during the week, alongside a 10.57% drop in COMEX gold and a 15.92% drop in COMEX silver [10]. - Industrial metal prices for aluminum, copper, zinc, lead, nickel, and tin experienced declines of -7.18%, -7.07%, -7.21%, -0.74%, -2.51%, and -11.27% respectively [10]. 2. Base Metals 2.1 Price and Stock Correlation Review - The report provides a detailed analysis of price movements and stock correlations for various base metals, indicating a complex interplay of macroeconomic factors affecting valuations [20]. 2.2 Industrial Metals - Aluminum prices are under pressure due to geopolitical tensions and a strong US dollar, with domestic demand showing signs of recovery as downstream processing rates increase [27]. - Copper prices are experiencing downward pressure from reduced interest rate expectations and geopolitical risks, but there is a notable increase in downstream purchasing activity as prices decline [46]. - Zinc prices are fluctuating due to geopolitical uncertainties and inventory levels, with domestic consumption gradually improving [58]. 3. Precious Metals and Minor Metals 3.1 Precious Metals - The report indicates that gold prices are facing downward pressure due to liquidity risks and inflation expectations, but the long-term outlook remains bullish due to central bank buying [2]. - Silver prices are also under pressure, with industrial demand potentially affected by changes in photovoltaic material production [2]. 3.2 Energy Metals - Lithium prices are expected to remain stable in the short term, while cobalt supply may tighten due to export controls in the Democratic Republic of Congo [10]. - Nickel prices are supported by supply uncertainties in Indonesia, but demand remains cautious due to high prices [10]. 4. Rare Earths - The report does not provide specific insights on rare earths in this section, focusing instead on the broader trends in the non-ferrous metals market [12].

中矿资源集团股份有限公司 证券代码：002738 证券简称：中矿资源 公告编号：2026-003 号 中矿资源集团股份有限公司 关于公司控股股东、部分实际控制人及其一致行动人减持股 份的预披露公告 公司控股股东、实际控制人及其一致行动人保证向公司提供的信息内容真 实、准确、完整，没有虚假记载、误导性陈述或重大遗漏。 公司及董事会全体成员保证公告内容与信息披露义务人提供的信息一致。 特别提示： 中矿资源集团股份有限公司（以下简称"公司"或"本公司"）控股股东中 色矿业集团有限公司（以下简称"中色矿业"）、实际控制人之一刘新国、实际 控制人之一陈海舟及实际控制人之一/董事吴志华之配偶肖晓霞（以下合称"本 次拟减持股份人员"）合计持有本公司股份104,356,526股（占公司总股本比例为 14.4640%），计划在本公告披露之日起15个交易日后的3个月内以集中竞价交易 方式减持本公司股份不超过7,206,526股（占本公司总股本比例为0.9988%）。 公司于近日收到本次拟减持股份人员的《股份减持计划告知函》，现将相关 情况公告如下： 一、本次拟减持股东的基本情况 股东名称、股东持有股份数量、占公司总股本的比例具体 ...

Group 1: Precious Metals - The financial attributes of precious metals, particularly gold, are expected to continue to shine, driven by ongoing central bank purchases and a shift in global credit dynamics, with gold prices projected to rise significantly [4][13][36] - Central banks' gold purchases are anticipated to increase from 5% to 21% of global gold demand from 2020 to 2024, with a peak of 23% in 2022, indicating a strong demand for gold as a safe asset [13][19] - Gold prices are projected to exceed $6,000 per ounce by 2026, supported by central bank buying and a decline in real interest rates [33][36][46] Group 2: Industrial Metals - The demand for industrial metals, particularly aluminum and copper, is expected to remain robust, with aluminum nearing production capacity limits domestically and limited supply growth internationally [4][54] - The copper market is facing significant supply disruptions, with major mines experiencing production cuts due to various operational challenges, leading to a tight supply outlook [53][54] - The overall copper production is projected to grow modestly, with a year-on-year increase of 2.5% in 2024 and 1.2% in 2025, but supply constraints may limit growth potential [54][72] Group 3: Minor Metals - Strategic minor metals such as lithium, cobalt, and tungsten are experiencing a revaluation due to increasing demand from energy storage and electric vehicle sectors [5][48] - The lithium industry is expected to see a reversal in its cycle earlier than anticipated, driven by high demand for energy storage solutions [5] - Cobalt supply is tightening significantly, leading to a notable price increase, while nickel prices are supported by clear cost structures and increasing supply disruptions [5][48]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for all key companies listed, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt [3]. Core Insights - The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, particularly the US-Iran conflict, are exerting downward pressure on metal prices due to inflationary concerns and a shift towards stagflation trading [1][9]. - The report highlights a strong expectation for aluminum prices to remain robust due to supply tightening from geopolitical risks, despite a cautious demand outlook [9]. - The copper market is experiencing fluctuations due to macroeconomic uncertainties and geopolitical tensions, with expectations for prices to remain within a defined range [9][44]. - The report emphasizes the importance of monitoring the recovery of downstream demand and the impact of geopolitical events on supply chains across various metals [9][66]. Summary by Sections 1. Industry and Stock Performance - The report provides a detailed analysis of stock performance for key companies in the non-ferrous metals sector, indicating a general upward trend in stock prices despite recent market volatility [12]. 2. Base Metals - **Aluminum**: Prices are expected to remain high due to geopolitical tensions affecting supply, with LME prices projected to range between $3,400 and $3,600 per ton [25][26]. - **Copper**: The market is characterized by short-term fluctuations influenced by geopolitical events and macroeconomic indicators, with prices expected to oscillate between $12,800 and $13,200 per ton [44][45]. - **Zinc**: Prices are under pressure due to increasing domestic inventories and geopolitical uncertainties, with LME prices recorded at $3,293.5 per ton [52][53]. 3. Precious and Minor Metals - **Gold**: The report maintains a bullish outlook on gold prices in the medium to long term, driven by central bank purchases and weakening US dollar credit [9]. - **Silver**: Industrial demand for silver may face challenges due to the impact of lower photovoltaic material costs, which could suppress prices [9]. - **Nickel**: Prices are expected to fluctuate due to supply constraints from Indonesia and geopolitical risks, with a projected range of 135,000 to 145,000 yuan per ton [66]. 4. Rare Earths - The report does not provide specific insights on rare earths in this section, focusing instead on the broader trends in base and precious metals [9].

Core Viewpoint - The article discusses the performance of the Silverhua ETF (159871) and its major holdings, highlighting a general decline in the prices of key stocks within the non-ferrous metals sector on March 13, 2023 [1] Group 1: ETF Performance - The Silverhua ETF (159871) opened down by 0.79%, priced at 1.126 yuan [1] - Since its inception on March 10, 2021, the fund has achieved a return of 127.30%, while its return over the past month is -0.27% [1] Group 2: Major Holdings Performance - Major holdings in the Silverhua ETF include: - Zijin Mining: down 1.50% - Luoyang Molybdenum: down 1.74% - Northern Rare Earth: down 1.10% - Huayou Cobalt: down 0.67% - China Aluminum: down 0.41% - Ganfeng Lithium: up 0.99% - Shandong Gold: down 0.72% - Yun Aluminum: up 0.28% - Zhongjin Gold: down 1.47% - Zhongmin Resources: up 0.80% [1]

Core Insights - The report highlights the impact of industry demand fluctuations on the company's revenue and profit margins, with a noted decline in various product sales and overall revenue [5][6][7] Company Performance - The company reported a total revenue of 4.474 billion yuan for 2025, a decrease of 8.78% year-on-year, with a net profit attributable to shareholders of 690 million yuan, down 26.87% [4] - Sales volume and revenue for most products declined, except for the aluminum-plastic cap plastic bottle series, which saw a slight increase in sales volume to 933 million units, up 4.81% [5] - The molded bottle series experienced a sales volume of 330,300 tons and revenue of 2.033 billion yuan, reflecting a year-on-year decline of 11.79% and 13.59% respectively [5] - The company’s comprehensive gross margin improved to 33.31%, an increase of 0.16 percentage points year-on-year, driven by product structure optimization and automation [6] - The net profit margin for 2025 was reported at 15.41%, a decrease of 3.82 percentage points year-on-year, influenced by inventory write-down losses and increased management expenses [7] Financial Health - The company's asset-liability ratio decreased to 17.42%, down 3.61 percentage points year-on-year, indicating improved financial stability [8] - Cash and cash equivalents accounted for 10.69% of total assets, an increase of 0.18 percentage points, providing a solid foundation for risk management and future growth [8] Strategic Developments - The company plans to establish a wholly-owned subsidiary in Malaysia to expand its overseas business, with exports in 2025 reaching 1.502 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 1.98% [8] - A directed share issuance is set to change the actual controller to a subsidiary of China National Pharmaceutical Group, which is expected to enhance collaboration and development opportunities [10]

Core Insights - The report highlights the significant changes in the frozen food industry in China, indicating a transition from rapid expansion to structural optimization, with a focus on B-end and C-end market dynamics [6][7]. Company Recommendations - The report recommends several stocks, including Ningbo Bank, Beijing Lier, and Muyuan Foods, as potential investment opportunities based on their market positions and growth prospects [4]. Industry Analysis - The frozen food industry in China is expected to see an increase in B-end pre-prepared food penetration, which will drive growth, while the C-end market will shift towards high-quality, healthy, and convenient products to meet the demands of a new generation of consumers [7]. - The report draws parallels with the Japanese frozen food industry, noting that the development of cold chain infrastructure and the transition from B-end to C-end markets are critical for growth [6][7]. - The concentration of the industry is anticipated to increase, with leading companies leveraging scale, branding, and comprehensive supply chain management to strengthen their market positions [7].

Investment Rating - The industry rating is "Recommended" [3] Core Insights - The report highlights that tungsten prices continue to reach historical highs, with expectations for a strong overall market for key metals [1][23] - Nickel prices are supported by tightening supply expectations due to Indonesia's reduced production quotas for 2026, which are set between 260 million to 270 million tons, significantly lower than the previous year's quota of 42 million wet tons [1][29] - Cobalt supply is expected to tighten further due to slow export progress from the Democratic Republic of Congo, with a forecasted increase in cobalt prices [2][5] - Antimony prices are anticipated to remain strong due to supply constraints, with a significant drop in production reported [6][18] - Lithium supply disruptions are expected to continue, with potential for lithium prices to reach new highs amid increasing demand [8][19] - The rare earth sector is facing supply shortages, particularly for praseodymium and neodymium, which may support prices [9][20] - Tin prices are supported by ongoing supply concerns from Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of Congo, with a notable decrease in tin imports [11][21] - Uranium supply is expected to remain tight, supporting high prices due to geopolitical factors and production delays [14][24] Summary by Sections Nickel and Cobalt Industry Insights - Indonesia's nickel production quota for 2026 is set to significantly reduce, impacting supply and supporting prices [1][29] - Cobalt exports from the Democratic Republic of Congo are hindered by complex local processes and logistical challenges, leading to tighter supply [2][5] Antimony Industry Insights - Antimony production has seen a sharp decline, which is expected to support prices in the near term [6][18] Lithium Industry Insights - Lithium prices are under pressure due to supply disruptions, but demand remains strong, potentially leading to price increases [8][19] Rare Earth Industry Insights - Supply shortages for praseodymium and neodymium are anticipated, which may bolster prices in the market [9][20] Tin Industry Insights - Ongoing supply issues from Myanmar and the Democratic Republic of Congo are expected to support tin prices [11][21] Uranium Industry Insights - The uranium market is facing supply constraints, which are likely to keep prices elevated due to geopolitical tensions and production delays [14][24]

Investment Rating - The report maintains a "Buy" rating for all key companies listed, including Zijin Mining, Luoyang Molybdenum, and Huayou Cobalt [2][4]. Core Views - The ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are impacting global commodity markets, particularly in the non-ferrous metals sector, leading to increased prices for key resources [8][28]. - The report highlights a strong expectation for aluminum prices to rise due to supply constraints caused by geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East [28]. - Demand recovery is noted in the aluminum sector as downstream industries resume operations post-holiday, with significant increases in aluminum water ratios [28]. - The lithium and cobalt markets are experiencing upward price pressures due to supply concerns from Zimbabwe and the Democratic Republic of Congo, respectively [28]. - Precious metals are expected to benefit from heightened risk aversion due to geopolitical tensions, with a bullish outlook on gold prices in the medium to long term [28]. Summary by Sections Industry and Stock Performance - The report provides a detailed performance analysis of key stocks in the non-ferrous metals sector, indicating a general upward trend in stock prices despite recent market volatility [11][13]. Base Metals - Aluminum prices have increased by 9.22% week-on-week, with expectations for continued strength due to supply disruptions from geopolitical tensions [15][28]. - Copper prices have shown volatility, with a recent decline attributed to rising geopolitical risks and a strong dollar, impacting market sentiment [48][49]. - Zinc prices have fluctuated due to supply and demand dynamics, with recent increases in domestic inventories affecting price stability [60][61]. Precious Metals and Minor Metals - Gold prices have risen by 3.71% recently, driven by increased demand for safe-haven assets amid geopolitical uncertainties [16][28]. - The report notes that silver prices have also increased significantly, reflecting strong industrial demand and investment interest [16][28]. - Cobalt and nickel markets are under pressure from supply constraints and geopolitical factors, with expectations for price increases in the near term [28][73]. Rare Earths - The report does not provide specific insights into rare earths in this section, focusing instead on the broader non-ferrous metals market dynamics [28].