东海研究 | 石油石化：关注美联储降息预期与油价波动风险

Core Viewpoint - The oil price is expected to fluctuate between $60 and $90 per barrel in 2025, influenced by various factors including OPEC+ production cuts, geopolitical tensions, and economic conditions [12][16][78]. Oil Price Influencing Factors - Brent crude oil price at the end of July 2025 is around $66.29 per barrel, with OPEC+ countries implementing voluntary production cuts of 648,000 barrels per day [5]. - The U.S. Federal Reserve is anticipated to lower interest rates, which may increase oil price volatility in the short term [5][78]. - Geopolitical factors, particularly in the Middle East, are expected to continue affecting oil prices, with ongoing trade tensions potentially exacerbating the situation [5][12]. Global Oil Supply and Demand - OPEC+ is maintaining a production cut of 3.6 million barrels per day until the end of 2026, with a voluntary cut of 548,000 barrels per day starting in August 2025 [5]. - U.S. crude oil processing improved in July 2025, with a processing rate of 16.01 million barrels per day, indicating a recovery in demand [24]. - China's crude oil consumption increased by 8.5% year-on-year in June 2025, with imports also showing a positive trend [5][24]. Economic Indicators - As of August 5, 2025, the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield is approximately 4.22%, with market expectations for a 25 basis point rate cut by the Federal Reserve in September [5]. - The U.S. Producer Price Index (PPI) rose by 0.7% year-on-year in June 2025, while the Consumer Price Index (CPI) increased by 2.58% [51]. - Manufacturing PMI in China for July 2025 is at 49.3, indicating a slight decline in manufacturing activity [52]. Inventory and Production Data - As of July 25, 2025, U.S. commercial crude oil inventories stand at 427 million barrels, down 6.36 million barrels year-on-year [17]. - The number of active oil rigs in the U.S. is 540, a decrease of 46 rigs compared to the previous year [25]. - Global oil supply is projected to increase by 2.1 million barrels per day in 2025 and 1.3 million barrels per day in 2026 [16][17]. Price Predictions from Authorities - EIA predicts Brent crude oil prices to average $69 per barrel in 2025 and $58 per barrel in 2026, with global oil demand expected to grow by 1.8 million barrels per day in 2025 [8]. - IEA forecasts a similar increase in global oil supply and demand, with production expected to rise by 2.1 million barrels per day in 2025 [8]. - OPEC anticipates a demand increase of 1.3 million barrels per day in 2025, with supply growth of 0.9 million barrels per day [8].