Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-08-11 07:05Core Viewpoint - UBS has lowered the target price for Xiaomi Group-W (01810) to HKD 60 while maintaining a "Neutral" rating, anticipating continued rapid growth in the AIoT business in the upcoming quarter [1] Group 1: AIoT Business Performance - The AIoT sales for the next quarter and the full year are projected to be RMB 36.6 billion and RMB 140.6 billion, respectively, representing year-on-year growth of 37% and 35% [1] Group 2: Smartphone Sales and Market Performance - Xiaomi's smartphone sales for the next quarter are estimated at 41 million units, showing a year-on-year increase of 0.5% and a quarter-on-quarter rise of 1.5% [1] - The Chinese market has seen an 8% year-on-year increase in sales, driven by subsidies and the 618 shopping festival [1] - The total smartphone sales for the year are expected to reach 175 million units, supported by gains in emerging markets and the mid-to-high-end market share in China [1] Group 3: Profitability and Margins - Due to the impact of the 618 promotional activities leading to a decrease in average selling price, along with the expanding contribution from emerging markets offsetting the ongoing high-end strategy, the smartphone gross margin for the second quarter is expected to remain stable at approximately 11.6% quarter-on-quarter [1]