高盛测算美国关税成本：截至6月“美国企业承担64%、消费者22%，出口商14%”，到10月“消费者将承担67%”

Core Insights - Goldman Sachs predicts that the majority of tariff costs will be passed on to American consumers in the coming months, significantly increasing inflationary pressures [1][5] - The cost-sharing structure of tariffs is shifting, with consumers expected to bear 67% of the costs by October, while businesses' share will drop to less than 10% [1][5] Tariff Cost Distribution - As of June, U.S. businesses absorbed 64% of tariff costs, while consumers and foreign exporters bore 22% and 14%, respectively [1][4] - The report indicates that the initial absorption of costs by businesses is due to a delay in cost transmission to consumers [1][4] Inflation Impact - The current tariff effects have already raised the core PCE price level by 0.20%, with projections of an additional 0.16% increase in July and 0.5% from August to December [1][5] - By December, the core PCE year-on-year inflation rate is expected to reach 3.2%, assuming a baseline inflation trend of 2.4% without tariff impacts [1][5] Foreign Exporter Response - Foreign exporters have shown limited absorption of tariff costs, leading to a slight decrease in import prices as they lower export prices [2][3] - It is estimated that foreign exporters will bear 25% of the tariff costs by October, with a potential overall decrease in U.S. import prices of 3.7% by the end of 2025 due to a 14 percentage point increase in effective tariff rates [3]