贝森特暗示关税会像“融化的冰块”一样被撤销，但前提是制造业回流美国

Core Viewpoint - The U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Basset suggests that the "reciprocal tariffs" imposed on imports may eventually decrease, contingent upon correcting trade imbalances and the return of manufacturing to the U.S. [1][2] Group 1: Tariffs and Trade Balance - The average tariff rate in the U.S. has reached 18.6%, the highest since World War II, as a result of recent tariff measures [1] - Basset emphasizes that the primary goal of the Trump administration's tariffs is to "rebalance" the U.S. current account deficit, which is projected to reach $1.18 trillion by the end of 2024 [1][2] - The U.S. has lost a significant number of manufacturing jobs over the past 40 to 50 years, and Basset believes that reducing imports will help restore trade balance [2] Group 2: Trade Negotiations - Basset anticipates that most trade negotiations will be completed by the end of October, with negotiations with China being the most critical but challenging [4] - The U.S. has recently reached a trade agreement with Japan, termed the "golden industrial partnership," which includes a commitment from Japan for $550 billion in investments and loans [5] - The agreement with Japan involves reducing tariffs on automobiles from 27.5% to 15%, although this reduction has not yet been implemented [5] Group 3: Foreign Investment and Economic Policy - Basset highlights the need to improve the U.S. investment environment to attract foreign direct investment, as the country has experienced trade deficits leading to capital returning primarily in financial forms [7] - The administration's strategy to bring manufacturing back to the U.S. through tariffs faces skepticism from economists, who argue that the necessary labor force and capital are lacking [7][8] - The high costs associated with relocating production to the U.S. present significant challenges, as investors require stable labor supply, local supply chains, and clear tariff policy timelines [8]