2025年上半年泸州·中国白酒价格指数运行报告（简版）

Core Insights - The report indicates a significant decline in the Chinese liquor market, with the wholesale price index dropping by 9.90% in the first half of 2025, reflecting a challenging environment for the industry [1][3][7] - The price indices show a continuous downward trend, with the basic index falling to 107.97 in June 2025, equivalent to levels seen in Q3 2021, effectively erasing five years of price increases [1][6][11] Summary of Key Points 1. Price Index Trends - The national liquor price index exhibited a consistent decline throughout the first half of 2025, with monthly fluctuations in the range of 0.06% to 0.38% [2] - The most significant monthly decline occurred in June, with a drop of 0.38%, while February saw the smallest decline at 0.06% due to seasonal demand [2] 2. Year-on-Year Price Changes - The year-on-year price index also showed a downward trend, with an overall decrease of 9.90% in the first half of 2025, marking the largest single-month decline since 2020 in June at 2.20% [3] - Premium liquor prices faced the most substantial pressure, with a cumulative drop of 14.96%, while base liquor prices increased by 2.89% [3] 3. Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The liquor industry is undergoing a structural transformation, moving from a phase of "scale expansion" to "value competition," with significant challenges such as high inventory and weak consumer demand [7][8] - The second half of 2025 is expected to see a "high-end stabilization, mid-tier pressure, and mass-market support" pricing structure, influenced by head companies' strategies to manage inventory and optimize product offerings [7][8][11] - The overall price index is projected to show a "first decline, then stabilization" trend, with potential for narrowing declines in the fourth quarter as seasonal demand increases [11]