Zhi Tong Cai Jing·2025-08-11 08:33Core Viewpoint - Morgan Stanley expresses an optimistic outlook on TSMC's performance, expecting strong growth driven by multiple factors, maintaining an "overweight" rating on TSMC's stock with a target price of 1,275 New Taiwan Dollars [1] Group 1: Q3 Revenue Expectations - TSMC's July revenue showed impressive growth, increasing by 26% year-over-year and 23% quarter-over-quarter, accounting for 34% of Morgan Stanley's estimated Q3 revenue [2] - Analysts predict TSMC's Q3 revenue will approach the upper limit of guidance (31.8 to 33 billion USD, or 922 to 957 billion NTD), primarily due to strong performance in the smartphone sector, particularly for Apple's N3 process, and stable growth in high-performance computing (HPC) [2] - Utilization rates for N3 and N5 process nodes exceed 100%, while the N7 series is expected to perform better in the second half of 2025 due to increased production of Apple WiFi and transceivers for C1 modems [2] Group 2: Apple-Related Benefits - Recent increases in the electronic manufacturing services (EMS) production of iPhone 17 across the supply chain have raised unit expectations by approximately 5-10% [3] - Apple has recently received tariff exemptions, which Morgan Stanley believes will positively impact TSMC's revenue by the end of Q4 2025, potentially leading to a revenue growth rate of nearly 35% in USD for TSMC's fiscal year 2025 [3] - Looking ahead to 2026, Apple is expected to launch a foldable iPhone and may upgrade all iPhone chips to the N2 process, with strong AI demand growth likely driving TSMC's healthy growth in 2026 [3] Group 3: Impact of 232 Tariff Clause - Morgan Stanley notes that the impact of the U.S. 232 tariff investigation and semiconductor tariffs appears to be milder, with most supply chains (such as Apple and Nvidia) exempt from 100% of semiconductor tariffs [4] - TSMC's capacity expansion in the U.S. is crucial for its customers to obtain exemptions related to the 232 tariff clause, which is expected to significantly enhance TSMC's pricing power in the coming years [4] Group 4: Samsung and Tesla Collaboration - Samsung and Tesla have announced a long-term supply agreement worth over 16 billion USD by 2033, with Samsung set to manufacture chips for autonomous driving and future humanoid robots [5] - While this may seem like a loss of market share for TSMC, Morgan Stanley believes TSMC cannot allocate sufficient capacity for Tesla at its Arizona facility, and Tesla is not among TSMC's top 10 customers [5] - Historically, Tesla's wafer demand has been primarily met through collaboration with Samsung, and TSMC is expected to capture 90-95% of the market share for its first N2 products [5] Group 5: 2026 Growth Expectations - Looking ahead to 2026, Morgan Stanley anticipates TSMC will continue to experience strong growth, projecting a 19% increase in USD terms, driven by price increases for advanced process nodes, strong N2 capacity growth, and ongoing robust AI demand [6] - Continued growth in iPhone demand from Apple may also present upside risks for TSMC's performance in 2026 [6]