小摩亚太市场前瞻：本周三大焦点事件来袭！

Group 1: Chinese Internet Industry - The Chinese internet industry is at a new growth node, with a focus on cloud services and advertising technology as the next driving forces, following the historical success in online gaming, advertising, and e-commerce [2] - Morgan Stanley predicts that if Alibaba Cloud, Baidu Smart Cloud, and Tencent Cloud maintain over 20% growth for two consecutive quarters, it will indicate the arrival of the "mature phase" for China's cloud business [3] - Tencent's current advertising density is only 4-5%, significantly lower than Meta's 30%+, suggesting substantial growth potential through AI advertising technology [6] Group 2: Dollar Outlook - The outlook for the US dollar remains bearish, with the dollar index (DXY) falling below 100, driven by four main factors: slowing US economic growth, advantageous GDP growth in other regions, potential Fed rate cuts, and an overvaluation of the dollar by 10-15% [7] - The Japanese yen is expected to appreciate, with the Bank of Japan likely to raise rates by 25 basis points, while the Fed enters a rate-cutting cycle [8] - Emerging markets have outperformed developed markets by 6.5 percentage points this year, presenting investment opportunities as the dollar weakens [11] Group 3: Asian Defense Stocks - Anticipation of a meeting between Trump and Putin may pressure Asian defense stocks, which have risen 25% over the past three months, while European defense stocks have started to decline [12] - High holdings in Asian defense stocks, which have increased by 125% this year, indicate a rising demand for profit-taking [12] - If a ceasefire is achieved, expectations for defense orders may weaken, suggesting a timely lock-in of profits [15]