CPI报告前夕，华尔街转向“滞胀交易”寻求防御

Group 1 - The core viewpoint is that inflationary concerns are leading investors to adopt defensive investment strategies ahead of the upcoming CPI report, with a focus on sectors like utilities, communication services, and consumer staples [1][2] - The S&P 500 index has risen by 8.6% this year, but recent employment data and rising service sector inflation have caused a market downturn, highlighting sensitivity to stagflation risks [1][2] - Analysts emphasize that tariff increases typically result in stagflationary shocks, raising the probability of economic slowdown while exerting upward pressure on prices [3] Group 2 - The New York Federal Reserve's monthly survey indicates that consumer inflation expectations rose in July, intensifying concerns about a prolonged inflation cycle [4] - Despite rising stagflation worries, some analysts maintain a relatively optimistic outlook for the market in the coming weeks, suggesting that tax cuts may stimulate investment and alleviate concerns [4] - Long-term inflation worries persist, with expectations that inflation may accelerate by 2026, and that bond yields and mortgage rates may not decline as anticipated when the Federal Reserve takes action [5]