欧洲光伏近十年首现负增长，绿电直连能否助力光伏闯出一片天？

Group 1: Market Trends and Challenges - Recent signs of recovery in the overseas photovoltaic market are largely attributed to non-market factors, making a short-term change in the market's soft pattern difficult [1] - Concerns over rising prices of photovoltaic components have led overseas customers to stock up, driven by policies aimed at reducing competition and anticipated price increases in upstream materials [1] - The European solar market is expected to experience its first negative growth in nearly a decade, primarily due to reduced government subsidies for rooftop solar panels [6][7] Group 2: European Market Insights - The EU aims to achieve a total installed photovoltaic capacity of 320GW this year, but the market is facing a significant shortfall in meeting its 2030 climate goals, with a projected gap of 27GW [7][8] - The decline in rooftop solar installations is attributed to tax reductions, with only 15% of new installations in 2025 expected to come from distributed residential solar [8][9] - Major European countries are cutting subsidies for rooftop solar, impacting overall demand and growth in the solar sector [9] Group 3: U.S. Market Dynamics - The U.S. solar market is also experiencing a downturn, with a 7% year-over-year decline in new installations in Q1 2025, driven by rising costs and policy changes [10][12] - Utility-scale solar remains resilient, with Texas leading in new installations, while residential solar faces significant challenges due to high interest rates and economic uncertainty [11][12] - The U.S. solar industry is expected to face a challenging trade and tariff environment, which could further complicate market dynamics [18][19] Group 4: Green Electricity Direct Connection - The introduction of green electricity direct connection aims to facilitate the consumption of renewable energy by allowing direct supply to single users, potentially expanding market opportunities [21][22] - High-energy-consuming industries are targeted for green electricity consumption goals, which could lead to increased demand for direct connection projects [22] - The green electricity direct connection initiative may accelerate market reforms in the electricity sector, enhancing efficiency and reducing risks [23][24]