First(SH:603806) Xi Niu Cai Jing·2025-08-11 12:42Core Viewpoint - Foster, a leading photovoltaic film manufacturer, is facing significant challenges due to a planned share reduction by its shareholder, Tongde Industrial, and a substantial decline in expected profits for the first half of 2025 [2][3]. Group 1: Shareholder Actions - Tongde Industrial plans to reduce its holdings by up to 32.52 million shares, representing 1.25% of Foster's total share capital, with a cash-out amounting to approximately 470 million yuan based on the closing price of 14.5 yuan per share [2]. - The reduction window is set from August 11 to November 10, raising concerns among investors about Foster's market outlook during a sensitive period following the profit warning [3]. Group 2: Financial Performance - Foster anticipates a net profit of 473 million yuan for the first half of 2025, a decline of 49.05% year-on-year, marking the worst semi-annual performance since 2021 [2]. - The company's gross profit margin has significantly decreased, with a 46.72% drop in gross profit due to falling prices of photovoltaic film products, which have decreased more than the raw material costs [3]. Group 3: Industry Context - The photovoltaic industry is undergoing a severe restructuring, with domestic production capacities for key components exceeding 1100 GW, while global demand is only expected to reach 600 GW in 2025 [4]. - The oversupply has led to a drastic price drop, with polysilicon prices falling by 39% and module prices dropping below the industry cost line [4]. Group 4: Strategic Responses - In response to declining performance and shareholder actions, Foster is accelerating the development of high-value-added products like POE films to combat homogenization in the market [4]. - The company is expanding its global production capacity, with projects in Thailand and Vietnam expected to increase overseas output to 600 million square meters, enhancing its market presence and mitigating trade barriers [5]. - Foster's photolithographic dry film business is targeting high-end applications, with a market potential exceeding 20 billion yuan, and is expected to maintain a growth rate of over 30% [5].