专访中亚银行首席经济学家：中国优势产业在印尼发展空间广阔

Economic Performance - Indonesia's GDP grew by 5.12% year-on-year in Q2, returning to above 5% growth levels, driven by strong demand for exports in palm oil, base metals, electronics, and automotive parts [1] - The government has adjusted its economic growth target for the year to between 4.7% and 5% due to domestic economic weakness and lack of significant growth in household consumption [4] Trade and Investment Dynamics - ASEAN is promoting the use of local currencies in trade and investment, aiming for 25% of trade among member countries to be conducted in local currencies by 2024, up from 10% in 2019 [2][8] - The U.S. government's tariff policies are not expected to significantly alter global trade dynamics, as the U.S. continues to have a strong import demand due to its expanding fiscal deficit [3] Monetary Policy and Financial Stability - The Indonesian central bank has cut interest rates four times since September last year, improving liquidity in the banking system [5] - The government is slowing down the issuance of government bonds to enhance market liquidity, with a projected fiscal deficit of 2.78% of GDP [6] Regional Economic Cooperation - The deepening economic cooperation between China and Indonesia has shown significant results, with Chinese imports of machinery from Indonesia increasing by 15.9% [10] - The establishment of a regional unified QR code payment system in ASEAN is expected to reduce reliance on dollar-dominated financial infrastructure [8] Future Prospects - The ongoing investment from China in Indonesia is expected to support the country's industrialization process, leveraging Indonesia's demographic advantages and market potential [12] - The trade relationship between China and ASEAN is strengthening, with ASEAN remaining China's largest trading partner, indicating a positive outlook for future economic collaboration [11]