瑞银下调油价预测：布伦特2025年底或跌至62美元/桶，供应增加成主因

Core Viewpoint - UBS has revised its international oil price forecast downward, expecting Brent crude prices to remain near the upper limit of $60 to $70 per barrel, with a potential drop to the lower limit later this year [1] Price Forecast Summary - UBS predicts Brent crude oil prices will decline to $62 per barrel by the end of 2025 and March 2026, down from a previous forecast of $68 per barrel, a reduction of $6 [1] - By mid-2026, prices are expected to recover to $65 per barrel, maintaining this level in the second half of the year [1] - The spread between WTI and Brent crude is expected to narrow from $4 per barrel to $3 per barrel [1] Factors Influencing Price Adjustments - The increase in oil supply from South America (e.g., Brazil, Guyana) is a key factor in the price adjustment [1] - Production from countries under international sanctions, such as Iran, Venezuela, and Russia, has exceeded expectations, alleviating concerns about significant declines [1] - Recent growth in oil demand from India has not met institutional expectations, impacting price assessments [1] OPEC+ Production Policy - UBS suggests that unless there are prolonged unexpected supply disruptions globally, OPEC+ may pause further adjustments to its production policy [1] - The firm holds a relatively optimistic view on oil prices for mid-2026 and the second half of the year, anticipating improvements in market supply-demand dynamics [1] Current Market Conditions - As of the latest report, WTI crude futures rose by 0.44% to $64.16 per barrel, while Brent crude futures increased by 0.42% to $66.87 per barrel [2] - Despite the slight daily recovery, oil prices faced the largest weekly decline since June due to OPEC+ plans to increase production by 547,000 barrels per day and concerns over global economic growth stemming from U.S. tariff policies [2]