螺纹：8月或震荡上行，供需与库存情况良好

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the reallocation of macro policies is expected to enhance the demand for rebar in August, leading to a potential upward trend in prices [1] - The demand side is supported by accelerated implementation of macro policies and faster issuance of local special bonds, which boosts infrastructure investment and rebar demand [1] - The real estate sector shows signs of stabilization, with a narrowing decline in new construction area, reducing the negative impact on rebar demand [1] Group 2 - On the supply side, improved profits for both long and short process steel mills are expected to increase production willingness, leading to a slight recovery in rebar output [1] - However, due to "anti-involution" policies and calls for industry self-discipline, production levels are anticipated to remain stable and operate at low levels [1] - Inventory levels are currently low, with downstream demand in the off-season, but the supply is also at a low level, resulting in a basic balance between supply and demand and a gradual reduction in inventory [1]