华尔街老兵：通胀风险或掐灭9月降息希望

Group 1 - The core concern is whether the weakness in the employment report reflects a decrease in labor demand or a labor shortage, or possibly both [2] - The uncertainty caused by the "tariff turmoil" since April may have led many employers to delay hiring plans, but this uncertainty should have decreased now, suggesting that hiring activities should resume [2] - The labor supply has stopped growing due to the Trump administration's effective border closure and ongoing deportation actions, indicating that the Fed should pause rate cuts to avoid exacerbating labor shortages and increasing inflation [2][4] Group 2 - The July non-farm payroll report showed weakness, and the duration of unemployment has been steadily increasing, making a case for the Fed's easing policy [4] - Initial claims for unemployment benefits remain low, indicating a low layoff rate, while the number of individuals receiving unemployment benefits has been rising, confirming that the duration of unemployment is lengthening [5][6] - The decision on whether the Fed will cut rates in September largely depends on the CPI inflation reports for July and August, with expectations that these data will show an increase due to tariffs [8][9]