特朗普冲击下的全球化何去何从？

Group 1 - The fragmentation of the global economy is characterized by weakened trade and investment links, potentially evolving into new institutional and structural forms [2][18] - A significant shift in corporate strategy towards "bare minimum" cost minimization is observed, driven by the uncertainty of U.S. policies, particularly tariffs [3][4] - U.S. manufacturing investment is likely to increase domestically while decreasing foreign investments, leading to a trend of "internal growth and external reduction" [5][6] Group 2 - The "bare minimum" strategy is not only adopted by multinational corporations but also by countries aiming to minimize real resource investment for security and negotiation leverage [7][9] - The U.S. faces challenges in isolating China due to the interconnectedness of global supply chains and the reluctance of other countries to fully commit to U.S. trade policies [11][14] - The potential for a fragmented global economy is highlighted, with two possible scenarios: "relational spaghetti bowl" and "multi-pot stove globalization," indicating a shift towards more closed and differentiated economic structures [18][19]