Red Robin Gears Up for Q2 Earnings: Key Factors to Note

Core Viewpoint - Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (RRGB) is set to report its second-quarter fiscal 2025 results on August 13, following a significant earnings surprise of 133.3% in the last quarter [1] Group 1: Q2 Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate anticipates a loss of 25 cents per share, compared to an adjusted loss of 48 cents per share in the same quarter last year [2] - Revenue estimates are projected at $285.2 million, reflecting a 5% decline from the previous year's figure [2] Group 2: Factors Influencing Performance - The company's revenue is expected to be impacted by macroeconomic conditions and low consumer traffic growth, which has been consistent over recent months [3] - Despite these challenges, Red Robin has shown growth in comparable restaurant revenue and unit-level profitability in the last two quarters, with expectations of a 7.5% year-over-year increase in comparable restaurant revenues [4] Group 3: Strategic Initiatives - The company is focusing on operational efficiency, particularly by reducing labor costs, which is expected to support its performance [4] - Red Robin's managing partner program and emphasis on digital projects and menu innovation are likely to contribute positively to its financial results [5] Group 4: Customer Satisfaction and Revenue Predictions - Investments in hospitality and food quality over the past two years have led to long-term increases in customer satisfaction, which is reflected in consistently high satisfaction ratings [6] - For the second quarter of fiscal 2025, restaurant revenues are predicted to decrease by 3% year-over-year to $285.5 million [6] Group 5: Margins and Earnings Predictions - The bottom line is expected to decline year-over-year due to increased costs from new tariffs, with total costs of sales projected to rise by 5.2% to $73.1 million [7] - Adjusted EBITDA is forecasted to grow by 10.7% year-over-year to $15.1 million, with an increase in the Adjusted EBITDA margin by 70 basis points to 5.2% [8] Group 6: Earnings Prediction Model - The model indicates a potential earnings beat for Red Robin, supported by a positive Earnings ESP of +67.35% and a Zacks Rank of 3 [9][10] - The anticipated loss of 25 cents per share represents a 48% year-over-year decline, attributed to softer consumer demand and macro uncertainties [9]