Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB) Conference Call Summary Company Overview - **Company**: Red Robin Gourmet Burgers Incorporated (RRGB) - **Date of Call**: July 15, 2025 - **Key Speaker**: Dave Fies, President and CEO Core Industry Insights - **Industry**: Casual Dining - **Current Trends**: The casual dining sector has been experiencing traffic declines over the past several years, necessitating a strategic shift in marketing and customer engagement efforts [7][18]. Key Points and Arguments First Choice Plan - **Objective**: To position Red Robin for long-term success and strengthen its financial foundation [4][16]. - **Pillars of the Plan**: 1. **Hold Serve**: Build on the foundations established under the North Star plan, focusing on food quality and hospitality [4][6]. 2. **Drive Traffic**: Increase guest engagement and visitation through creative marketing strategies [4][7]. 3. **Find Money**: Manage expenses and assets to reduce debt and allow for critical investments [4][10]. 4. **Fix Restaurants**: Invest in physical locations to enhance the dining experience [4][14]. 5. **Win Together**: Foster a high-performance culture to attract and retain top talent [4][15]. Financial Performance - **Second Quarter Expectations**: Comparable restaurant sales are expected to decrease by approximately 4%, slightly below previous expectations of a 3% decrease [18]. - **Adjusted EBITDA**: Expected to exceed prior expectations of $13 million to $16 million, indicating positive momentum from the managing partner program [19]. Marketing Initiatives - **Big Yum! Deal**: Launching a promotional offer to drive traffic, featuring a Red's Double Tavern burger, a bottomless side, and a beverage for $9.99 [8][22]. - **Targeted Marketing Plan**: A more sophisticated marketing strategy is planned for implementation by the end of 2025, focusing on data analytics to understand guest preferences [9][56]. Cost Management - **G&A Savings**: Estimated annual reduction of approximately $10 million in general and administrative expenses [12][48]. - **Labor Efficiency**: Labor costs are expected to improve, with a target of being below 37% in Q2 [28][29]. Refranchising Strategy - **Tactical Refranchising**: Aimed at generating proceeds to reduce debt and reinvest in the business, with no material impact expected in 2025 [12][19]. - **Franchisee Opportunities**: Current franchisees may expand their holdings, while the majority of restaurants will remain company-owned [13][51]. Restaurant Improvements - **Physical Upgrades**: Initial investments will address deferred maintenance, with potential for broader renovations in the future [14][62]. - **Guest Experience Focus**: Emphasis on creating a guest-focused culture to enhance the overall dining experience [38][39]. Additional Important Insights - **Competitive Environment**: The company acknowledges the need to remain competitive in pricing while avoiding excessive discounting that could dilute brand value [25][65]. - **Ownership Mindset**: The Managing Partner Program has fostered a culture of accountability and performance among restaurant operators, contributing to improved profitability [34][35]. Conclusion - **Outlook**: The management expresses confidence in the First Choice Plan and its ability to drive sustainable growth and shareholder value, with updates expected in future earnings calls [17][68].

Core Viewpoint - Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. has announced its "First Choice" plan aimed at enhancing long-term shareholder value and provided an updated financial outlook for the second quarter of fiscal 2025 [1][2]. Group 1: First Choice Plan - The "First Choice" plan is designed to make Red Robin the preferred choice for guests, team members, and investors through coordinated initiatives [2][3]. - Key components of the plan include protecting the foundations of the previous North Star Plan, driving traffic through creative engagement, managing expenses to reduce debt, investing in restaurant facilities, and fostering a high-performance work environment [3][4]. Group 2: Financial Outlook - The company expects second quarter comparable restaurant sales to decrease by approximately 4%, slightly worse than the previous expectation of a 3% decrease [5]. - Adjusted EBITDA is anticipated to exceed prior expectations of $13 million to $16 million, indicating improved profitability [5][6]. - The first half of 2025 is projected to show Adjusted EBITDA surpassing the full-year results of 2024, reflecting operational excellence and cost efficiency [6]. Group 3: Investor Communication - An investor conference call is scheduled for July 15, 2025, to discuss the "First Choice" plan and updated financial expectations [7]. - The call will be accessible via phone and will also be webcast live, with a replay available shortly after the call [8].

Core Viewpoint - Red Robin (RRGB) has shown an 8.1% increase in stock price over the past four weeks, with a mean price target of $9.38 indicating a potential upside of 49.1% from the current price of $6.29 [1] Price Targets and Analyst Estimates - The mean estimate consists of four short-term price targets with a standard deviation of $3.94, where the lowest estimate is $3.50 (44.4% decline) and the highest is $12.00 (90.8% increase) [2] - A low standard deviation among price targets suggests a high degree of agreement among analysts regarding the stock's price movement [9] Earnings Estimates and Analyst Sentiment - Analysts have shown increasing optimism about RRGB's earnings prospects, as indicated by a positive trend in earnings estimate revisions [11] - Over the last 30 days, the Zacks Consensus Estimate for the current year has increased by 14.5%, with one estimate moving higher and no negative revisions [12] - RRGB holds a Zacks Rank 1 (Strong Buy), placing it in the top 5% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimates [13] Conclusion on Price Targets - While the consensus price target may not be a reliable indicator of the stock's potential gain, it does provide a directional guide for price movement [14]

Group 1 - Red Robin (RRGB) closed at $5.00, with a 57.7% gain over the past four weeks, and a mean price target of $9.38 suggests an 87.6% upside potential [1] - The average price targets range from a low of $3.50 to a high of $12.00, with a standard deviation of $3.94, indicating variability in analyst estimates [2] - Analysts show a consensus that RRGB will report better earnings than previously estimated, which supports the potential for stock upside [4][11] Group 2 - The Zacks Consensus Estimate for RRGB has increased by 7.6% due to one upward revision in earnings estimates over the last 30 days [12] - RRGB holds a Zacks Rank 2 (Buy), placing it in the top 20% of over 4,000 ranked stocks based on earnings estimate factors, indicating strong potential for upside [13] - While the consensus price target may not be a reliable indicator of the extent of gains, it does provide a directional guide for price movement [14]

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ENGLEWOOD, Colo., June 11, 2025 /PRNewswire/ -- Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (NASDAQ: RRGB) ("Red Robin" or the "Company"), a full-service restaurant chain serving an innovative selection of high-quality gourmet burgers in a family-friendly atmosphere, today announced that it will host meetings with institutional investors at the 15th Annual Jefferies Consumer Conference on June 17-18, 2025 in Nantucket, MA.About Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (NASDAQ: RRGB)Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (www.redrobin. ...

Core Viewpoint - Red Robin Gourmet Burgers experienced a significant stock surge of nearly 100% in a single day following the release of its first-quarter 2025 earnings, indicating investor enthusiasm for the company's ongoing turnaround efforts [1][2]. Financial Performance - The company reported a net income of $1.2 million, or $0.07 per diluted share, with adjusted earnings per share (EPS) reaching $0.19, surpassing analyst expectations of a loss of approximately $0.57 [4]. - Total revenues increased to $392.4 million, up $3.8 million from the same quarter last year [4]. - Comparable restaurant revenue grew by 3.1%, driven by a 6.8% rise in net menu prices [4]. - Adjusted EBITDA more than doubled to $27.9 million, marking a 108.2% increase from the previous year [4]. - The Restaurant Level Operating Profit margin improved to 14.3% from 11.0% in the first quarter of 2024 [4]. Strategic Developments - David Pace was appointed as President and CEO in April 2025, bringing continuity to the company's turnaround plan [5]. - The new CEO has outlined four main strategic goals focused on improving operations, increasing customer visits, strengthening finances, and upgrading restaurant environments [6][10]. - A significant marketing effort aims to address declining guest visits, with 22% of customer visits in Q1 coming from lapsed customers returning to the brand [8][9]. Market Outlook - Analysts have set a 12-month stock price forecast of $13.38, indicating a potential upside of 105.77% from the current price of $6.50 [7]. - The average analyst rating for Red Robin is a Buy, suggesting confidence in the company's growth potential [9].

Core Insights - Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (NASDAQ: RRGB) has been facing significant financial challenges, with over six years of net losses impacting its balance sheet [1] Financial Performance - The company has experienced a continuous decline in profitability, leading to a weakened financial position [1] Investment Perspective - The current situation presents potential investment opportunities, but the ongoing losses and balance sheet erosion raise concerns about the company's future viability [1]

Group 1 - Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB) is undergoing efforts to turn the business around after experiencing turbulent years, leading to a buy rating in January 2024 [1] - The analysis is based on value investing principles, an owner's mindset, and a long-term investment horizon [1] - The analyst does not engage in writing sell articles or recommending shorting [1] Group 2 - There are no current stock, option, or derivative positions in any mentioned companies, nor plans to initiate such positions within the next 72 hours [2] - The article reflects the author's own opinions and is not influenced by compensation from any company [2] - Seeking Alpha emphasizes that past performance does not guarantee future results and that views expressed may not represent the platform as a whole [3]

Core Insights - Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (RRGB) reported first-quarter fiscal 2025 results with earnings and revenues exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate, showing year-over-year growth in both metrics [1][5]. Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for the first quarter were 19 cents, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 57 cents, compared to an adjusted loss of 73 cents in the same quarter last year [5]. - Quarterly revenues reached $392.4 million, exceeding the consensus mark of $387 million, reflecting a 1% increase year-over-year [5]. - Comparable restaurant revenues increased by 3.1% year-over-year, a significant improvement from the 6.5% decline reported in the prior-year quarter [5]. Operational Metrics - The restaurant-level operating profit margin was 14.3%, up from 11% in the prior-year quarter, exceeding the projected margin of 12.7% [6]. - Restaurant labor costs decreased to $143.1 million from $149 million in the prior-year quarter, while other operating costs slightly increased to $67.5 million from $66.5 million [6][7]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $27.9 million, compared to $13.4 million in the prior-year quarter, surpassing the estimate of $23.2 million [7]. Financial Position - As of April 20, 2025, cash and cash equivalents were $24.2 million, down from $30.7 million as of December 29, 2024. Long-term debt decreased to $164.8 million from $181.6 million during the same period [8]. Future Guidance - For the second quarter of fiscal 2025, the company anticipates a decline of about 3% in comparable restaurant sales, influenced by a 240 basis point headwind from the non-recurrence of a 2024 benefit related to the loyalty program [9]. - Total revenues for fiscal year 2025 are now expected to range between $1.21 billion and $1.23 billion, slightly lower than the initial projection [10]. - Adjusted EBITDA for fiscal 2025 is anticipated to be between $60 million and $65 million, with capital expenditures estimated at approximately $30 million [10].