Group 1 - Red Robin Gourmet Burgers (RRGB) is undergoing efforts to turn the business around after experiencing turbulent years, leading to a buy rating in January 2024 [1] - The analysis is based on value investing principles, an owner's mindset, and a long-term investment horizon [1] - The analyst does not engage in writing sell articles or recommending shorting [1] Group 2 - There are no current stock, option, or derivative positions in any mentioned companies, nor plans to initiate such positions within the next 72 hours [2] - The article reflects the author's own opinions and is not influenced by compensation from any company [2] - Seeking Alpha emphasizes that past performance does not guarantee future results and that views expressed may not represent the platform as a whole [3]

Core Insights - Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (RRGB) reported first-quarter fiscal 2025 results with earnings and revenues exceeding the Zacks Consensus Estimate, showing year-over-year growth in both metrics [1][5]. Financial Performance - Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) for the first quarter were 19 cents, surpassing the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of 57 cents, compared to an adjusted loss of 73 cents in the same quarter last year [5]. - Quarterly revenues reached $392.4 million, exceeding the consensus mark of $387 million, reflecting a 1% increase year-over-year [5]. - Comparable restaurant revenues increased by 3.1% year-over-year, a significant improvement from the 6.5% decline reported in the prior-year quarter [5]. Operational Metrics - The restaurant-level operating profit margin was 14.3%, up from 11% in the prior-year quarter, exceeding the projected margin of 12.7% [6]. - Restaurant labor costs decreased to $143.1 million from $149 million in the prior-year quarter, while other operating costs slightly increased to $67.5 million from $66.5 million [6][7]. - Adjusted EBITDA for the quarter was $27.9 million, compared to $13.4 million in the prior-year quarter, surpassing the estimate of $23.2 million [7]. Financial Position - As of April 20, 2025, cash and cash equivalents were $24.2 million, down from $30.7 million as of December 29, 2024. Long-term debt decreased to $164.8 million from $181.6 million during the same period [8]. Future Guidance - For the second quarter of fiscal 2025, the company anticipates a decline of about 3% in comparable restaurant sales, influenced by a 240 basis point headwind from the non-recurrence of a 2024 benefit related to the loyalty program [9]. - Total revenues for fiscal year 2025 are now expected to range between $1.21 billion and $1.23 billion, slightly lower than the initial projection [10]. - Adjusted EBITDA for fiscal 2025 is anticipated to be between $60 million and $65 million, with capital expenditures estimated at approximately $30 million [10].

For the quarter ended March 2025, Red Robin (RRGB) reported revenue of $392.35 million, up 1% over the same period last year. EPS came in at $0.19, compared to -$0.80 in the year-ago quarter.The reported revenue represents a surprise of +1.28% over the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $387.4 million. With the consensus EPS estimate being -$0.57, the EPS surprise was +133.33%.While investors closely watch year-over-year changes in headline numbers -- revenue and earnings -- and how they compare to Wall Street exp ...

Red Robin (RRGB) came out with quarterly earnings of $0.19 per share, beating the Zacks Consensus Estimate of a loss of $0.57 per share. This compares to loss of $0.80 per share a year ago. These figures are adjusted for non-recurring items.This quarterly report represents an earnings surprise of 133.33%. A quarter ago, it was expected that this casual restaurant chain would post a loss of $0.54 per share when it actually produced a loss of $0.94, delivering a surprise of -74.07%.Over the last four quarters ...

Financial Data and Key Metrics Changes - Total revenues for Q1 2025 were $392.4 million, an increase from $388.5 million in Q1 2024, primarily driven by a 3.1% increase in comparable restaurant revenue and a 6.8% increase in net menu price, despite a 3.5% decline in guest traffic [10][11] - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 2025 was $27.9 million, an increase of $14.5 million compared to Q1 2024, attributed to cost efficiency gains and menu price increases [12] - Restaurant level operating profit as a percentage of restaurant revenue was 14.3%, an increase of 330 basis points compared to the same quarter last year [11] Business Line Data and Key Metrics Changes - The revamped Red Robin Royalty program had approximately 15.3 million members at the end of Q1 2025, contributing to increased guest engagement and frequency of visits [8] - The company has focused on operational efficiency through its managing partner program, which incentivizes restaurant leaders to achieve strong financial results [7] Market Data and Key Metrics Changes - The company anticipates comparable restaurant sales to remain generally unchanged at approximately 0% for the year, with expectations of a decline of about 3% in Q2 2025 due to headwinds from the loyalty program changes [14][16] - Guest traffic was down 3.5% in Q1 2025, with expectations of a continued decline of approximately 4% for the remainder of the year [32][34] Company Strategy and Development Direction - The company aims to strengthen its financial position by reducing debt and increasing free cash flow generation, allowing for greater flexibility in investment opportunities [22] - Key priorities for 2025 include retaining operational improvements, returning to sustainable traffic growth, and reinvesting in restaurant facilities and atmosphere [19][20] - The company is focused on enhancing guest engagement and marketing strategies to restore Red Robin as a preferred dining option [20] Management's Comments on Operating Environment and Future Outlook - Management expressed optimism about the company's progress but acknowledged the need for continued improvement in guest experience and traffic growth [18][19] - The broader macroeconomic environment and consumer trends have led to a more cautious outlook for the remainder of the year, prompting a reduction in revenue guidance [14][15] Other Important Information - The company ended Q1 2025 with $24.2 million in cash and cash equivalents, $9.1 million in restricted cash, and $35 million available under its revolving line of credit [13] - The company plans to close 10 to 15 restaurants by the end of the year, with closures expected to be evenly spread throughout the year [48] Q&A Session Summary Question: Profitability in Q1 and maintaining guidance - Management noted that efficiency gains in labor contributed significantly to Q1 profitability, despite anticipated pressure from tariffs and traffic declines [30][31] Question: Menu price contribution throughout the year - Management expects menu price contribution to decline throughout the year, projecting about 4% check growth in Q2, 4% in Q3, and 2% in Q4 [35] Question: Loyalty program effectiveness - Management confirmed that the loyalty program is performing well, with significant opportunities for further growth and engagement [39] Question: Traffic trends and promotions - Management indicated that traffic trends are consistent with previous expectations, and the Hot Honey promotion has exceeded expectations [46][47] Question: Selling expenses and media spend outlook - Management expects selling expenses to remain around $30 million for the year, with some variability quarter to quarter [68] Question: Refinancing debt outlook - Management is optimistic about refinancing opportunities following strong Q1 results, but no specific timeline was provided [72][73]

Financial Performance - Total revenues for the first quarter of fiscal 2025 were $392.4 million, an increase of $3.8 million compared to the same period last year[75]. - Net income for the first quarter was $1.2 million, a significant improvement from a net loss of $9.5 million in the prior year, representing a $10.7 million increase[75]. - Adjusted EBITDA rose to $27.9 million, reflecting a 108.2% increase from $13.4 million in the same quarter last year[75]. - Restaurant revenue rose by 1.9% to $385.8 million in Q1 fiscal 2025 from $378.6 million in Q1 fiscal 2024, with total restaurant operating costs decreasing by 1.9%[98]. - Restaurant level operating profit increased by 32.5% to $55.0 million in Q1 fiscal 2025, with a margin of 14.3% compared to 11.0% in Q1 fiscal 2024[102]. - Net income for Q1 fiscal 2025 was $1.25 million, a significant improvement from a net loss of $9.46 million in Q1 fiscal 2024[99]. - Adjusted EBITDA for Q1 fiscal 2025 was $27.9 million, up from $13.4 million in Q1 fiscal 2024[100]. Revenue Sources - Comparable restaurant revenue increased by 3.1%, with a total increase of $11.5 million, while non-comparable and closed restaurant revenue decreased by $4.3 million[74][75]. - Franchise revenue decreased by 16.0% to $4.5 million, primarily due to reduced franchisee contributions for marketing programs[84]. Cost Management - Labor costs as a percentage of restaurant revenue decreased to 37.1%, down from 39.3% in the same quarter last year, indicating improved efficiency[88]. - Cost of sales as a percentage of restaurant revenue decreased by 1.0% to 22.8%, driven by menu price increases and vendor contributions[86]. - Selling expenses decreased by 30.8% to $9.4 million in Q1 fiscal 2025 from $13.5 million in Q1 fiscal 2024, representing 2.4% of total revenues[95]. Cash Flow and Liquidity - Cash and cash equivalents decreased by $6.1 million to $33.3 million as of April 20, 2025, with total liquidity of approximately $59.2 million[103]. - Net cash provided by operating activities increased by $5.8 million to $19.6 million in Q1 fiscal 2025 compared to $13.7 million in Q1 fiscal 2024[105]. - Capital expenditures totaled $11.97 million in Q1 fiscal 2025, up from $8.25 million in Q1 fiscal 2024[107]. - Net cash flows used in financing activities decreased to $19.3 million in Q1 fiscal 2025 from $21.9 million in Q1 fiscal 2024[108]. Debt and Financing - As of April 20, 2025, the Company had outstanding borrowings of $164.8 million under the Credit Facility, with $35.0 million of available borrowing capacity[113]. - The Second Amendment to the Credit Agreement increased aggregate revolving commitments by $15.0 million to $40.0 million through the third quarter of 2025[111]. - The Company is subject to customary covenants under its Credit Facility, including a net total leverage ratio covenant, and was in compliance as of April 20, 2025[114]. - A 1.0% change in the effective interest rate on $171.7 million of borrowings would result in a pre-tax interest expense fluctuation of $1.7 million annually[124]. - Interest expense increased by $0.6 million to $8.1 million in Q1 fiscal 2025, with a weighted average interest rate of 14.1% compared to 13.2% in Q1 fiscal 2024[96]. Shareholder Actions - The Company has repurchased a total of 1,088,588 shares at an average price of $15.18 per share for an aggregate amount of $16.52 million since the share repurchase program began[116]. Operational Changes - The total number of restaurants decreased from 505 to 491, with 401 company-owned and 90 franchised locations as of April 20, 2025[76][77]. - Average weekly net sales volumes in company-owned restaurants increased by 4.1% to $59,483 compared to $57,139 in the prior year[82]. Risk Management - The Company continues to monitor interest rate risk and may use interest rate swaps to manage exposure to interest rate changes[125]. - A 1.0% increase in food and beverage costs would negatively impact cost of sales by approximately $2.9 million on an annualized basis[126]. Seasonal Trends - The business is subject to seasonal fluctuations, with historically higher sales during spring, summer, and winter holiday seasons[117]. Accounting and Compliance - The Company has no significant changes in critical accounting estimates since the last Annual Report[119]. - The Company operates with a working capital deficit, utilizing operating cash flows to fund capital expenditures and debt repayment[115].

Exhibit 99.1 Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. Reports Results for the Fiscal First Quarter Ended April 20, 2025 Englewood, CO – May 29, 2025 – Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. (NASDAQ: RRGB) ("Red Robin" or the "Company"), a full-service restaurant chain serving an innovative selection of high-quality gourmet burgers in a family-friendly atmosphere, today reported financial results for the fiscal first quarter ended April 20, 2025. Highlights for the Fiscal First Quarter of 2025, Compared to the Fiscal First ...

Core Viewpoint - Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. reported a strong financial performance for the fiscal first quarter of 2025, showing increases in both sales and profits compared to the same period in 2024, while outlining strategic priorities for future growth [1][3]. Financial Performance - Total revenues for the first quarter of 2025 were $392.4 million, an increase of $3.8 million from $388.5 million in the same quarter of 2024 [4][7]. - Restaurant revenues rose to $385.8 million, up from $378.6 million year-over-year [4][7]. - Net income was $1.2 million, a significant improvement from a net loss of $9.5 million in the previous year, marking a $10.7 million increase [4][7]. - Adjusted EBITDA reached $27.9 million, reflecting a 108.2% increase from $13.4 million in the prior year [4][7]. Operational Highlights - Comparable restaurant revenue increased by 3.1%, with guest traffic declining by 3.5% and menu prices rising by 6.8% [16]. - Restaurant Level Operating Profit was $55.0 million, with a margin of 14.3%, compared to $41.5 million and 11.0% margin in the previous year [4][26]. Balance Sheet and Liquidity - As of April 20, 2025, the company had outstanding borrowings of $171.7 million, down by $17.8 million from the end of fiscal 2024 [5]. - Liquidity stood at approximately $59.2 million, including cash and cash equivalents [5]. Strategic Priorities - The company aims to focus on four key priorities: enhancing operational execution, driving sustainable traffic growth, strengthening financial position through debt reduction, and reinvesting in restaurant facilities [3]. Outlook for Fiscal 2025 - Updated guidance for total revenue is projected between $1.21 billion and $1.23 billion, with Adjusted EBITDA expected to remain in the range of $60 million to $65 million [9]. - The company anticipates a decline in comparable restaurant sales of approximately 3% in the second quarter of fiscal 2025 due to the non-recurrence of benefits from a loyalty program [9].

Core Viewpoint - Red Robin Gourmet Burgers, Inc. is expected to report a loss in its first-quarter fiscal 2025 results, with significant challenges from high expenses and a tough macroeconomic environment [1][2]. Q1 Estimates - The Zacks Consensus Estimate anticipates a loss of 57 cents per share, an improvement from an adjusted loss of 80 cents per share in the prior-year quarter [2]. - Revenue estimates are set at $387.4 million, reflecting a year-over-year decline of 0.3% [2]. Factors Impacting Performance - The company's performance is likely to be negatively impacted by high expenses related to sales-building initiatives, including advertising and technical upgrades [2]. - Increased costs from remodeling, restaurant maintenance, and staffing are also expected to contribute to the financial pressures [2]. - Dismal traffic remains a concern for the company [2]. Positive Initiatives - Red Robin's focus on loyalty programs and strategic initiatives aimed at driving growth may have positively influenced its performance [3]. - The company has made significant investments in food quality and hospitality, leading to improved guest satisfaction [4]. - The introduction of flat-top grills and menu upgrades for over 85% of its offerings have enhanced the gourmet burger experience [4]. Revenue Predictions - Restaurant revenues for Q1 fiscal 2025 are predicted to decrease by 1.7% year over year to $372.2 million, while same-store sales are expected to increase by 3.7% year over year [5]. Earnings Prediction Model - The Zacks model indicates that Red Robin is unlikely to achieve an earnings beat this quarter, with an Earnings ESP of -2.35% and a Zacks Rank of 3 [6].

Core Insights - Red Robin (RRGB) is projected to report a quarterly loss of $0.57 per share, reflecting a 28.8% increase in losses compared to the same period last year [1] - Revenue estimates for the quarter are forecasted at $387.4 million, indicating a slight decrease of 0.3% year over year [1] Earnings Estimates - The consensus EPS estimate has been revised downward by 3.6% in the last 30 days, indicating a reassessment by analysts [2] - Changes in earnings estimates are crucial for predicting investor reactions to the stock [3] Revenue and Key Metrics - The consensus estimate for restaurant revenue is $376.61 million, showing a decline of 0.5% from the previous year [5] - Analysts expect the total number of restaurants to reach 497, down from 505 year-over-year [5] - The number of franchised restaurants is estimated to be 93, slightly up from 92 in the previous year [5] - The number of company-owned restaurants is projected to be 405, down from 413 in the same quarter last year [6] Stock Performance - Red Robin shares have increased by 15.7% over the past month, outperforming the Zacks S&P 500 composite, which rose by 8.2% [7] - The company holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), suggesting it is expected to perform in line with the overall market [7]