Rigetti Pre-Q2 Earnings Analysis: Buy, Sell or Hold the Stock?

Core Insights - Rigetti Computing (RGTI) is set to release its second-quarter 2025 results on August 12, with a consensus estimate of a loss per share of 6 cents and revenues of $1.91 million, indicating a year-over-year growth of 14.3% in earnings but a decline of 38.2% in revenues [1][6] - The consensus for 2025 revenues is estimated at $8.8 million, reflecting an 18.6% year-over-year decline, while the loss per share is projected at 5 cents, suggesting an 86.1% growth year-over-year [2] Financial Performance - RGTI has an Earnings ESP of 0.00% and currently holds a Zacks Rank of 3 (Hold), indicating no strong expectation of beating estimates [4] - The company has had mixed results in the past four quarters, surpassing estimates once, missing once, and meeting expectations twice, leading to an average earnings surprise of negative 7.5% [2] Technological Advancements - Rigetti's 36-qubit Ankaa-class system achieved a two-qubit gate fidelity of 99.5%, which is expected to support the development of the Ankaa-3 system targeted for later in 2025 [5][6] - Early customer engagement with the 36-qubit system is underway, which is anticipated to accelerate product refinements and commercialization efforts [5] Business Development - The company is focusing on converting technological advancements into revenue-generating contracts, with ongoing work on government and research partnerships and exploration of commercial opportunities [7] - Management expects certain contracts and collaborations to progress in 2025, potentially strengthening the second half of the year [7] Financial Position - Rigetti ended the previous quarter with a solid cash position, supported by disciplined expense management and efforts to optimize its cost structure [8] - Investors should monitor revenue performance, operating expenses, and cash burn trends as indicators of the company's ability to sustain development without diluting shareholder value [8] Market Performance - Year-to-date, RGTI shares have gained 1.1%, while competitors IonQ and D-WAVE QUANTUM have seen gains of 0.1% and 101.1%, respectively, against a broader Internet Software industry increase of 23.5% [9] - RGTI trades at a Price-to-Book (P/B) ratio of 21.64, significantly higher than IonQ (9.29) and Quantum Computing Inc. (7.11), reflecting stronger growth expectations despite lower multiples from competitors [13] Investment Considerations - Rigetti's technological progress and customer engagement are promising for long-term positioning, but near-term upside appears reflected in the stock [18] - The company's ability to convert technical milestones into long-term contracts will be crucial for sustaining growth, with investors advised to watch for broader customer uptake and revenue visibility in the second half of the year [19]